A Sample:As Time Goes By in Weather Forecasting INTRODUCTION: Does weather forecast accuracy deteriorate as the forecasts are extended more and more into the future?
TASK • collect forecasts made by television stations, newspapers, and governmental agencies • check for accuracy and bias • examine your data and draw conclusions.
PROCESS 1:Three-week Project • spend a few minutes each day gathering weather forecast information from the web Sources:NBC, FOX, ABC, CBS stations, the local Newspapers, The Weather Channel, Weather Underground (National Weather Service), or other potential forecasters…
PROCESS 2 From Monday to Friday of the first two weeks, record several types of high temperatureforecasts made by each forecaster. Record four types of forecasts: 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day On Friday, record only 1-day forecasts. Never record forecasts for Sunday.
PROCESS 3 • Find the averagerelative forecast error for all types of high temperature forecasts: 1-day, 2-day, 3-day and 4-day AVERAGE = MEAN
Finding the Average Relative Forecast Error (ARE) The first step in finding the average relative forecast error for a particular set of forecasts is to find the relative error (RE) for each forecast: RE = forecast value - actual value
EXAMPLE If FOX forecasted a high of 65 F, and actual high was 67 F, the relative error would be -2 F. If the actual high were 63 F, the relative error would be 2 F.
Lastly… Prepare individual and group reports. LIST: • the forecaster(s) for which you collected data • the web sites used • the forecasts themselves • the verification, the average relative and absolute errors for each forecaster and for each forecast type • AND write a paragraph evaluating each forecaster's ability to accurately predict high temperatures for one, two, three and four days into the future
Information Sources Web Sites for TV stations • NBC: www.nbc.com • FOX: www.fox.com • ABC: www.abc.com • CBS: www.cbs.com • The Weather Channel: www.weather.com • yahoo: dir.yahoo.com/News_and_Media/Newspapers/ • google: directory.google.com/Top/News/Newspapers/Directories/ • National Weather Service: www.weather.gov • Weather Underground: www.wunderground.com
Guidance This is where you give extra information regarding: • The Math processes you want Ss to use • The sites • How to present findings eg:
Conclusion • Wrap up the story: “The Society thanks you. Your research, along with information being sent in from other secret agents around the world, will be used to alert and to protect the public. Again, we thank you. Your reward is on its way…”
EVALUATION Show rubric by which Ss’ performance will be evaluated. Project score will include assessements of individual contribution, as well as group's performance. SEE: https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/kahl/www/WebQuests/Time/id21.htm
GLOSSARY OF TERMS • absolute valueThe value of a number, regardless of whether the number is positive or negative. For example, both 4 and -4 have absolute values of 4. The absolute value can never be a negative number. • accuracy The extent to which a forecast is correct. etc…https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/kahl/www/WebQuests/Time/id22.htm
Sources • https://pantherfile.uwm.edu/kahl/www/WebQuests/Time/id2.htm • http://www.teach-nology.com/teachers/lesson_plans/computing/web_quests/math/