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A Rational Look at Climate Change Concerns

A Rational Look at Climate Change Concerns. Remarks by Kimball Rasmussen Deseret Power – President & CEO for the Colorado Farm Bureau November 20, 2009. Today’s Presentation. Is “global warming” for real? What can we do about it? How much is this going to cost?.

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A Rational Look at Climate Change Concerns

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  1. A Rational Look at Climate Change Concerns Remarks by Kimball Rasmussen Deseret Power – President & CEO for the Colorado Farm Bureau November 20, 2009

  2. Today’s Presentation • Is “global warming” for real? • What can we do about it? • How much is this going to cost?

  3. “Mainstream” Sciencesounding the climate change alarm United Nations World Meteorological Organization United Nations Environment Programme

  4. “Mainstream” Sciencesounding the climate change alarm United Nations World Meteorological Organization United Nations Environment Programme Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1988

  5. IPPC 4th Assessment Report "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change."

  6. Al Gore and the UN IPCC

  7. United Nations IPCC Base year for all calculations is 1750 • Roughly coincides with the “Little Ice Age” • General warming recovery of 0.75°C since “Little Ice Age” • Warming peaked in 1998 • Cooling trend this decade

  8. 21st Century Trend IPCC Models

  9. “…many States in the central and eastern part of the country set new records for the coolest July ever in 115 years of record. Accordingly, cooling degree days …were 8.4 percent below the average for the month of July and 12.0 percent below a warmer July 2008.” Energy Information Administration (EIA), September, 2009

  10. How much CO2 is in theatmosphere?

  11. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 1750: 275 PPM Today: 385 PPM 2099: 550 PPM

  12. CO2 in the atmosphere

  13. CO2 in the atmosphere Ben Hill Griffin Stadium • 90,338 attendance • 35 people equal all atmospheric CO2 • 10 equal all human-caused CO2 (non-USA) • 3 equal equal USA-caused CO2 • 1 equals allU.S.A. electric-power CO2 US electric CO2 person

  14. Greenhouse Theory

  15. CO2’s natural warming effect 92 Watts/m2

  16. Additional human-caused warming 1.6 92 Watts/m2

  17. What is the theoreticalglobal temperature change from USA Coal emissions?

  18. IPCC Simple Climate ModelTemperature Response Carbon dioxide “forcing” x Climate sensitivity Temperature response

  19. ( ) 34 ( ) 36 550 - 385 385 + = 541 ppm CO2 Comparisons • 36 billion tons of CO2 equivalent – World • 2 billion tons of CO2 – U.S. coal sector • 34 billion tons of CO2 – World w/out USA coal

  20. ( ) 550 541 U.S. Electric CO2 Contribution ∆ T = 5.35 x ln x .81 = 0.07° C

  21. U.S. Electric CO2 Contribution 7/100th of 1° C = 100% Curtailment But… Federal Legislation calls for: • 17% reductions by 2020 • 83% reductions by 2050  Yields 3/100th of 1° C

  22. Potential effect of carbon legislation 3/100th of 1°C Changes to be felt in 100 years!

  23. What is the “Pain” for zero “Gain?”

  24. What is the “Pain” for zero “Gain?”

  25. Energy Price Impacts • Average U.S. household burdened with energy “tax” of approximately $700 – 2,200/yr* • Utah rural households expect a power “tax” of approximately $780 - $4,000/yr** *Congressional Budget Testimony to the U.S. Senate, May 7, 2009 **$49/ton mid-range estimate for CO2 emissions 0 to 40% allowances

  26. Wealth Transfers • Cap-and-trade  Cap-and-TAX • In reality we won’t have winners and losers • We will have losers and bigger losers! • Every segment of the economy will take a hit!

  27. Wealth Transfers Cap and trade winners and losers

  28. Unintended Consequences ofClimate Legislation • Developing countries have higher CO2 emissions per GDP • USA emits 516 tons CO2/mm$GDP • China emits 2,222 tons CO2/mm$GDP USA CO2 reductions = Global CO2 Increases

  29. China vs. U.S. Example 516 tons CO2/mm$GDP 2,222 tons CO2/mm$GDP

  30. Source: National Energy Technology Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy

  31. Industry Outmigration Trends

  32. What about the promise of “renewable” energy?

  33. Bonneville Power AdministrationThe “Peak Load” Weeks • Studied the wind output during the BPA system peak period of November 23rd through January 24th • Compared to “actual” BPA system load each of these weeks

  34. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Nov. 23, 08 Megawatts Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  35. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Nov. 30, 08 Megawatts Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  36. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Dec. 7, 08 Megawatts Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  37. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Dec. 14, 08 2008 BPA Peak Load Megawatts Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  38. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Dec. 21, 08 Megawatts Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  39. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Dec. 28, 08 Megawatts 12/29 9:50 AM: wind generation increased 818 MW (1/2 of total wind capacity) in 30 minutes, and 1,068 MW (2/3 of total wind capacity) in 60 minutes. Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  40. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Jan. 4, 09 Megawatts Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  41. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Jan. 11, 09 Megawatts Beginning of eleven continuous days with nearly zero wind generation Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  42. Sun. Mon. Tues. Wed. Thur. Fri. Sat. Bonneville Power Administration Actuals– Week Jan. 18, 09 Megawatts Poor wind conditions continue Data: Bonneville Power Administration

  43. What about the promise of “green” jobs?

  44. Jobs, jobs, jobs and jobs! • “Just remember these four words for what this legislation means: jobs, jobs, jobs, and jobs.” • Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives

  45. U.S. Department of Energy “20% by 2030” jobs forecast based on Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model “JEDI”

  46. What is a “Green Job” Three green job categories:

  47. Operations Construction Manufacturing What is a “Green Job” Three green job categories:

  48. What is a “Green Job” We lost more jobs in one month than JEDI says we might gain in ten years through the retooled green policy!

  49. JEDI Model Caveats • Static model – no “feedbacks” for increased power rates in general economy • “Gross” (not “net”) jobs counting – no recognition of “offsetting effects on employment in other energy sectors”

  50. Wind Vs. Coal Equivalent Apples to Apples Case • Capital investment for coal $105 billion less than wind • Coal operating costs 40% below wind • Each new green job removes 1.5 to 2.7 coal jobs

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