1 / 17

CBRFC Water Supply Training

CBRFC Water Supply Training. Goals. Review methodologies and procedures Increase consistency between forecasters Improve understanding of basin hydrology. Agenda. Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations. Nov 4: Procedures. Nov 5: Forecast Tools. Nov 12: Basin Project Reports.

Télécharger la présentation

CBRFC Water Supply Training

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.


Presentation Transcript

  1. CBRFC Water Supply Training

  2. Goals • Review methodologies and procedures • Increase consistency between forecasters • Improve understanding of basin hydrology

  3. Agenda Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations Nov 4: Procedures Nov 5: Forecast Tools Nov 12: Basin Project Reports

  4. Oct 9: Verification / Climate Correlations • Overview and General Discussion • Verification – Kevin and Lisa (2 hours) • New Capabilities • Basin Assignment • Climate Correlations – Bill (1/2 hour) • Climate Correlation demo – Kevin and Drew (1/2 hour)

  5. Nov 4: Procedures • Water supply procedure list – Brenda / Greg • Basin documentation: best practices and baseline template – Greg • Data gathering: obtaining data, processing data, database, shef coding – Brenda • Coordination with NRCS and WFOs – Brenda • Product Dissemination: ESGs, publications, western water, email – Greg

  6. Nov 5: Forecast Tools • SWS theory – Kevin • SWS practical – Steve • ESP and XEFS – Kevin • ESPADP – Greg • ESP and ESPADP batch - John

  7. Nov 12: Basin Project Reports • Verification and climate assignment results: • Great Basin – Brent • Green Basin – Bill • Upper Colorado – Brenda • San Juan + Gunnison – Tracy • Lower Colorado – Greg • Overall discussion: How do we come up with our number?

  8. Format • Formal talks • Open discussion • “Homework” assingment • Interesting and fun

  9. Opportunity #1: Important Forecast Program

  10. Opportunity #2: CBRFC Control • Unlike many other most NWS programs, CBRFC has near total freedom over forecast procedures, services, etc: • 1940s – CBRFC established for water supply forecasting • 1990s – SWS developed at CBRFC • Major opportunity for prototyping concepts for other NWS programs

  11. Opportunity #3: ESP • “Many irrigation interests, reservoir operators, and other water management agencies now possess sufficient sophistication to demand and efficiently utilize water supply forecasts of a probabilistic nature for a variety of time periods.” • Twedt, et al, 1977 • “ESP is a valuable tool when used as part of an operational decision support system for water management. The probabilistic information allows decision makers to incorporate risk into operational decisions.” • -WARFS Demonstration Report, 1994 • “Now that I’ve been using ESP to support decisions in my operations, I cannot imagine not using it” • paraphrasing a water manager in 2008

  12. Opportunity #4: Verification • “You guys keep telling me how you make your forecasts and how great they are, but you’ve never shown me anything that proves it.” • Anonymous customer, 2008 • New verification capabilities this year (THANKS LISA!) will allow the first ever objective and robust treatment of this question.

  13. More Opportunities • NIDIS • Interaction with research community

  14. New Paradigms? SWS ESP NRCS Forecaster User

  15. New Paradigms? ESP & XEFS NRCS VIPER SWS ESP NRCS Forecaster Forecaster User User

  16. Discussion • What areas of the forecast process would you like more explanation? • Where do you see opportunities for improvement? • Is there information or support that you’re not getting that would help you? • Is there too much information?

More Related