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Advancing Homeland Security: Evaluating Risks and Benefits of Policies

This roundtable discussion led by Paramita Sinha from RTI International focuses on estimating the benefits of homeland security policies. Key topics include the implementation of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI) in land, sea, and air environments aimed at improving identity verification for entrants. The session addresses challenges in estimating baseline security risks, measuring risk reductions, and understanding willingness to pay (WTP) for reduced terrorist risk. It encourages exploring literature and Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) to develop systematic approaches for identifying and categorizing risks related to security policies.

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Advancing Homeland Security: Evaluating Risks and Benefits of Policies

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Policy Roundtable 3: Risk Paramita Sinha (RTI International) Prepared for Estimating the Benefits of Homeland Security Policies September 23 & 24, 2010 Funded by CREATE@USC

  2. Examples: RIAs • Final rule for WHTI Implemented in the Land Environment • WHTI Implemented in the Sea Environment and • Proposed Air/Sea Biometric Exit Project These are rules to help establish the identity of individuals entering the country more accurately and efficiently – these contribute to lower risks to security

  3. Benefits Section RIAs identifies following difficulties: • How to estimate baseline security risks • How to measure risk reductions • Hard to find estimates of WTP to reduce terrorist risk

  4. Moving forward, as we think through some of these problems, are there approaches that we can come up with? • What would be reasonable first steps? • Can we learn something by looking at the literature? • Can we learn something by looking at the RIAs? • What can we do bring them closer?

  5. Some thoughts….. • Maybe we can start by systematically categorizing (or developing appropriate ranges) of • baseline risks • reduction in risks • trying to apply what is the most appropriate estimate of WTP measures to the context in question • Maybe possible to do this for some rules? • Maybe we do not need baseline risk in some cases if you assume that the value is constant over a certain range?

  6. For example, can we do a literature search and come up with studies fitting into the appropriate cells?

  7. Some ways to think about risk/architecture European perspective…. • Tolerability of Risk framework • Multi Criteria Decision Analysis EPA….. • Risk Assessment/Risk Management -These may not necessarily the most relevant framework - Decide where you want to be in the future and move towards that

  8. Some interesting discussions we had on risk…. • Think about interactions between different DHS policies to reduce “composite” risk • Endogenous risks – game theoretic approach (use of best response functions) as a framework to think about this? • How are people thinking about risks – Subjective vs. objective risks

  9. Recent economics literature deals with different ways to think about valuing risk • labels, perceptions and characteristics associated with risks that seem to matter (e.g. Alberini and Scasny) • does cause of death matter (e.g. Taylor and Kochi) • crime literature • risk perception literature gives some insights on risks with “dread” associated with them

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