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Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power Sector: Numbers and Attribution

Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power Sector: Numbers and Attribution. Peter Ciborowski April 4, 2012. Assigned Questions. Emissions and emission rates from the Minnesota electric power sector have declined substantially, 2000-2010

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Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power Sector: Numbers and Attribution

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  1. Emissions and Emission Rate Changes from the Minnesota Power Sector: Numbers and Attribution Peter Ciborowski April 4, 2012

  2. Assigned Questions Emissions and emission rates from the Minnesota electric power sector have declined substantially, 2000-2010 • How much of that can be attributed to the installation of control equipment and facility retrofits/changeouts? • How much of it is due to changes in dispatch? • Of changes arising from dispatch how much is due respectively to new natural gas, biomass and wind generation (and the backing-off of coal) and how much due to import substitution?

  3. Needed Data Development • Updated data through 2010 for net generation, energy input to generation, in-state GHG emissions, in-state fossil CO2 emissions, sector energy balance, out-of-state emission and heat rates • Updated universe of facilities to add Rapids Energy, OREG3, Koda Energy • Developed NOx and SO2 emissions data from MPCA Criteria Pollutant Inventory • Maintained all else the same as in October 2011 , including sectoral definitions

  4. Comparison of CY 2010 EGU Emissions Estimates: MPCA and EPA

  5. Percentage Reduction between 2003 and 2010

  6. Percentage Reduction between 2000 and 2010

  7. Conclusions (part 1) Change in the sector has been rapid and large-scale in nature The changes have been persistent in direction While the recession in undoubtedly a factor, the changes appear to have persisted through 2011 Depending on endpoints, GHG, NOx and SO2 emissions from in-state combustion have declined 11-19%, 58-60% and 54-61%, respectively

  8. Conclusions (part 1) (cont.) Depending on endpoints, GHG, NOx and SO2 emissions from in-state combustion plus imports have declined 3-9%, 51-53% and 39-45%, respectively Depending on endpoints, emissions per MWH from in-state combustion for GHGs, NOx and SO2 have declined 4-10%, 51-61% and 50-58%, while emission per MWH from all in-state generation declined 16-19%, 57-61%, and 56-61%, respectively

  9. Analysis Assumptions emission intensity changes across shared MWH (for paired years) is a good marker for the effects of the installation of control equipment, facility retrofits and replacement the best and most inclusive measure of emission intensity effects are the observed effects across shared MWH plus those emissions due to changes at plant that would have been avoided at plants not dispatched had those plants been dispatched all other effects are dispatch effects

  10. Analysis Architecture Endpoints for analysis: 2000:2010; 2002: 2010; 2003:2010; 2005: 2010 Pollutants: GHGs, NOx, SO2 Parameters evaluated: emissions (tons), emission rates (tons/MWH; tons/MMBtu energy input) Sectoral boundaries for analysis: in-state combustion; in-state generation; in-state generation plus imports

  11. Data Sources In-state facility-by-facility emissions: MPCA GHG Inventory, MPCA Criteria Pollutant Inventory In-state facility-by facility net generation: EIA-923, EIA-906, FERC form 1 In-state facility-by facility energy input to generation: MPCA GHG Inventory

  12. Data Sources (cont.) Electric power sector energy balance: EIA Electric Power Annual, EIA-923, EIA-906, EIA State Electricity Profiles Out-of-state per MWH emission rates: EIA, Electric Power Annual databases Out-of-state energy input to generation: EIA, Electric Power Annual databases

  13. Method For each paired year for each facility, evaluate the distribution of MWH-generated, MMBtu-energy input and emissions across the respective emission intensity and dispatch pieces Estimate the change in emissions and emission rates Evaluate the contribution of the changes resulting from changed emission intensity and changed dispatch to the observed facility-level changes

  14. GHG Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  15. NOx Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  16. SO2 Emission Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  17. GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  18. GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  19. NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  20. NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  21. SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  22. SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Combustion for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  23. GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  24. NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  25. SO2 Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  26. GHG Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  27. NOx Emission Rate Changes from In-state Generation Plus Imports for Paired Years and Their Attribution

  28. GHG Emission Rate (tons/MWH) Changes Across Different Sector Definitions and Spatial Scales

  29. NO2x Emission Rate (tons/MWH) Changes Across Different Sector Definitions and Spatial Scales

  30. Resources Dispatched in Minnesota in 2003 but not in 2010 and Vice Versa

  31. Resources Dispatched for Minnesota in 2003 but not in 2010 and Vice Versa

  32. Conclusions The largest part of the GHG reductions from in-state combustion of the last 10-years have resulted from changed dispatch, though this result depends on the endpoints chosen This relation reverses when emission rate changes for GHGs are considered If we switch to in-state generation, this relation changes again; the bulk of the observed changes in GHG emission rates results from dispach effects

  33. Conclusions (cont.) The overwhelming majority of NOx and SO2 emission reductions and reductions in emission rates have been the result of emission intensity changes at existing plant Dispatch effects are smaller and are most evident in emission rate reductions treated in relation to all in-state generation, including nuclear, wind, and hydroelectric

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