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Monitoring Weather Hazards in Uganda

Monitoring Weather Hazards in Uganda. By Catherine Mulinde Kafeero Meteorologist Department of Meteorology. Uganda and its neighbours. Severe Weather Thresholds. Precipitation - ≥ 30mm/24hrs Winds - ≥ 20knots Temperatures - ≥ 35 0 C. Drought Risk in Africa - Uganda.

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Monitoring Weather Hazards in Uganda

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  1. Monitoring Weather Hazards in Uganda By Catherine MulindeKafeero Meteorologist Department of Meteorology

  2. Uganda and its neighbours

  3. Severe Weather Thresholds • Precipitation - ≥ 30mm/24hrs • Winds - ≥ 20knots • Temperatures - ≥ 350 C

  4. Drought Risk in Africa - Uganda

  5. Drought affected areas in Uganda

  6. The residents look-on helpless after the occurrence of the landslide while they resorted to using hand hoes with hope of rescuing their loved ones with the help of army soldiers (UPDF). • On March 2, 2012, a landslide in Bududa (Eastern Uganda) left 300 people dead, loss of property and thousands homeless. • However, the DoM had issued a warning which was rather ignored.

  7. The landslides were attributed to widespread deforestation on the slopes of Mt. Elgon. Deforestation is one of the threats to environmental sustainability in the country

  8. Floods are common in Kampala; the capital city of Uganda, western, central and Eastern regions especially during the El-Niño phenomenon. They damage structures, crops, animals and settlements. Water borne diseases like cholera, dysentery, and typhoid are also common.

  9. Teso Flash Floods of Sept, 2007 Stranded villagers in Teso awaiting rescue when floods swept away their property Floods disrupted and paralysed traffic in Teso

  10. Landslides buried,destroyed and damaged homes

  11. Landslide in upper Bulambuli in Sisiyi sub county

  12. Some flooded homes in Bulambuli

  13. Floods in Kampala

  14. In Sebei sub region, Kween district, ngenge subcounty where floods have displaced over 5000 people due to severe rains. SWFDP workshop, 28 Nov . 03 Dec 2011, Arusha, Tanzania

  15. Floods in lower Bulambuli district

  16. Due to land-lake breeze effect, Lake Victoria basin is reported with the highest average annual frequency of lightning and thunderstorms in the world (Bukoba reports 226 days per year, Kampala 222 days, Entebbe 211days and Kisumu 202 days). More than 800 people in May 1995 were capsized in Lake Victoria June, 2011 - 22 students and a teacher died after lightning struck their school in the country’s mid-west. In another school, northwest of Kampala – 37 students and two teachers were killed October, 2012 - Three radio stations also say recent lightning has damaged their transmission equipment

  17. Coverage of case study: Kalangala Islands

  18. Forecast Tools employed • Synoptic Chart Analysis, • Ensemble Forecast, • Probabilities and NWP guidance (HRM, WRF, NCEP, UKMO, ECMWF) • Precipitation maps from NOAA and UK Africa LAM. • Satellite Imageries from Eumetsat

  19. Southern Africa Synoptic Analysis • St. Helena and the Mascarene anticyclones were tremendously weakened by the numerous low pressure systems in their vicinity • As a result the zonal arm of the ITCZ was mainly confined to the southern sector of the country • The meridional arm of the ITCZ was also over our region

  20. MSL and 850hpa wind speed

  21. 700hpa Relative Humidity and Winds • Relative humidity levels around Lake Victoria varied between 80% and 95% • These high humidity levels were as a result of moist southwesterly winds blown over our region by the maritime portion of the Mascarene anticyclone

  22. UK Lam Precipitation maps • UK LAM showed strong signal for relatively heavy precipitation in the Northern and Eastern shores of Lake Victoria in the morning • The signal was weak for afternoon precipitation

  23. Total Surface Precipitation Probabilities (at least 10mm)

  24. ECMWF EFI and EPS • The EFI showed no indication of a severe weather event in and around Lake Victoria • For the 1st and 2nd six-hourly forecasts the EPS members’ prediction of total precipitation had low confidence • The forecast for the 3rd six hours had a high confidence in which almost all the ensemble members predicted total precipitation in the region of 1mm/6hr • In the last 6hours, 99% of the ensemble members predicted precipitation of 4mm or less

  25. NCEP GFS Forecast for CAPE

  26. Ncep GFS Forecast for Precipitable Water • The CAPE values were low over the region • Precipitable water values were relatively high • This implied insufficient energy for lifting moisture thus culminating into low convective activity over the region

  27. Regional Guidance Products RSMC - Nairobi RFSC – Dar-es-salaam

  28. Day 1 and 2 Risk Tables • Forecast issued on 17th November, 2012 • Valid for 17th and 18th November, 2012 • Medium heavy rains expected for Eastern and western Uganda • Degree of confidence being medium ( 50 – 75% )

  29. Real-Time Satellite Observations

  30. Challenges • Inadequate data • Insufficient facilities and personnel • Model output simulations • Low Public Trust

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