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EURODELTA 3 Focus on the retrospective analysis Trend analysis. The two phases. Evaluation on the EMEP field campaigns 2006: 01/06 - 30/06 2007: 08/01 - 04/02 2008: 17/09 - 15/10 2009: 25/02 – 26/03 Retrospective analysis
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EURODELTA 3 Focus on the retrospectiveanalysis Trend analysis
The two phases • Evaluation on the EMEP fieldcampaigns • 2006: 01/06 - 30/06 • 2007: 08/01 - 04/02 • 2008: 17/09 - 15/10 • 2009: 25/02 – 26/03 • Retrospectiveanalysis • Capacity of currentmodels to reproducemonitoredchanged in air quality • Retro. analysis 2008 1999 1990 2010 2010 • Response of models to sharpemission trend (1990- 1999 – 2008) • First stage of the modelling part of trend analysis • Common set of input data , domain Baseline yr GP. Signature of the GP.
Achievements of Phase I • EMEP report written: • MSC-W Technical Report 1/2014 • "The EURODELTA III exercise. Model evaluationwith observations issuedfrom the 2009 EMEP intensive period and standard measurements in Feb/Mar 2009" • B. Bessagnet, A. Colette, F. Meleux, L. Rouïl, A. Ung, O. Favez, C. Cuvelier, P. Thunis, S. Tsyro, R. Stern, A. Manders, R. Kranenburg, A. Aulinger, J. Bieser, M. Mircea, G. Briganti, A. Cappelletti, G. Calori, S. Finardi, C. Silibello, G. Ciarelli, S. Aksoyoglu, A. Prévôt, M.-T. Pay, J. M. Baldasano, M. García Vivanco, J. L. Garrido, I. Palomino, F. Martín, G. Pirovano, P. Roberts, L. Gonzalez, L. White, L. Menut, J.-C. Dupont, C. Carnevale, A. Pederzoli • Five publications on the campaignsplanned
EURODELTA participants • Met.No – UNECE (EMEP) (Phase I & II) • TNO – NL (LOTOS-EUROS) (Phase I & II) • INERIS – FR (CHIMERE) (Phase I & II) • FUB – DE (RCG) (Phase I & II?) • ENEA/Arianet - IT (MINNI) (Phase I & II) • HZG - DE (CMAQ ) (Phase I & II?) • PSI/RSE –CH/IT (CAMX) (Phase I & II) • BSC- ES (CMAQ) (Phase II) • CEREA – FR (POL’AIR) (Phase II) • Trend analysis, 20 years (CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP?, MINNI, otherswelcome)
Main topics of phase II • Anthropogenic emissions : Temporal profiles, NO/NO2 ratio • Boundary conditions • Meteorology • Dataset consistency 1990 – 1999 – 2010 (met data, emissions, BC)
General settings expected for the simulations • A commondomainshouldbe the best • Common emissiondataset for anthropogenicspecies • EMEP + gap fillingwith GAINS or only GAINS • Biogenicemissions (free), NO & VOC • Common set of boundary conditions for the Modelling Teams • Common meteorologyencouraged • Otheremissions : • Road dustresuspension, windblowndust (free) • Define an output species to trackthesespecies • POA chemistry (free) • Minimum aerosolspeciesrequired in the outputs (BC, POM, Other PPM, SOA, NO3, SO4, NH4, Sea Salt, Dust) • Requested output data : 1st model layer (no downscaling or assimilation)
Meteorology • ECMWF/IFS wasused for recentCampaign analyses • Need to find a consistent 1990-2010 meteorological driver • => Hindcasts of CORDEX RegionalClimateDownscaling
EURO-CORDEX • Hindcastwithperfectboundary conditions to assessregionalclimatemodels • WRF Driven by ERA-Interim, no nudging • Thoroughlydocumented in Kotlarski et al., GMD 2014 • Cover 1989-2008, extended to 2012 • Resolution : 30-40km
Volume of data • Provided by Robert Vautard & AnnemiekStegehuis (LSCE/IPSL) • Optimised configuration, nudged • Volume • 139G/yr • 52G/yr for CHIMERE variables: • sigma of half-sigma level, sigma of full-sigma level, Surface pressure, Base-state pressure, Perturbation pressure, SW radiation down, LW radiation down, 2m-mixing ratio, Longitudes of cross points, Latitudes of cross points, Accumulated convective precipitation, Accumulated large scaleprecipitation, x-windat 10m, y-windat 10m, Surface sensible heatfluxSurface latent heat flux, Frictionalvelocity, 2m air temperature, SoilMoisturelevel 1, PBL heightfrom WRF, WRF x-wind WRF y-wind, Potentialtemperature, Cloud liquid water mixing ratio, Rain water mixing ratio, Specifichumidity, Water equiv. accum. snowdepth, Perturbation geopotential, Geopotential
ED25n Domain • ED25n • 45,000 points, about 25km • Does not fit in Cordexdomain • Cordex22s • 32,500 points about 25km Cordex22s
Emissions: some issues • Gasemissions on 50/50km availablefrom EMEP • Temporal profile : ED or TNO available • Regridding of 1990 industrial sources? East/West Germany • PM emissions in 1990 : GAINS-ECLIPSE, ratio PM/SOx or PM/NOx by sector and country for the spatialisation? • NO/NO2 ratio, GAINS
Differencesbetween 0.5° and 50km grids for Germany 50kmX50km 0.5°x0.5°
Emissions: best datasetwe propose • Use of GAINS numbers for PM and Gases for the threeyears and for the twodecadesafterwards • « in-house » spatialisation • TNO for NH3 • INERIS proxies for SNAP7 and 8 (road and shipping) • INERIS proxies for residentialemissions • EPRTR for industrial sources (different for the threeyears) • UK and FR emission inventories embedded in the dataset (as proxy)
Boundary conditions • At least, O3, CO, CH4, Dust, OM, BC, SO4, NO3, NH4 • Monthlyfrequencyshouldbesufficient • Global chemistry-climatehindcast & projections • Eyring, et al., SPARC newsletter 2013 • Hindcastmost relevant to us: • 1960-2010 • Completed by end of 2014 • Cam-Chemresultscanbeprovided to Eurodelta • Based on MACCCity Emissions
Model outputs to bedelivered (µg/m3) • Daily concentrations • NO3, NH4, SO4, Na, DUST, TPPM, ASOA, BSOA, PM10, PM2.5 • Size : add _25, _10, for PM2.5, PM10, fractions for PM components: • Ex: NO3_25 or NO3_10 • NH3, SO2, APINEN, ISOP, HNO3, H2O2, HCHO, PAN, VOC • O3max, O3mean • Hourly concentrations and met. • O3 , NO2 • PBL • Monthlydeposition • Dry dep. : DSOx, DNOx, DNHx • Wetdep : WSOx, WNOx, WNHx • Store at least PM10, PM2.5, Nitrate, Ammonium, Sulphate, SOA on an hourly basis on yourdisks • Onlysend the first level
Ouput files • Same as for EURODELTA Phase I • Netcdf format (Daily, hourly, monthly) • INERIS ftp server
EURODELTA TREND ANALYSIS MT : Modelling Teams Today EURODELTA Phase II -INERIS provide 2010 emissions, meteorology and BC 31/12/2014 Production phase for 2010 MT run 2010 and send the results 28/02/2015 Validation on the main pollutants, species (INERIS) 31/03/2015 -INERIS provide 2000, 1990 emissions, meteorology and BC 30/04/2015 MODEL TREND ANALYSIS Production of the missingyearsbetween 1990 & 2010 30/09/2015 Analysis