1. PACT-WP3 Jean-Pierre Birat, ArcelorMittal Research, France Bruxelles, 6 October 2008

2. Menu • who are we? • our vision of PACT • WP3 • partners & network GRC, Industrial Ecology

3. Menu • who are we? • our vision of PACT • WP3 • partners & network GRC, Industrial Ecology

4. Who we are… • ArcelorMittal – MEFOS • Steel Industry & Research institutes of the • AM Research-Sustainability • Environmental R&D within AM (LCT & beyond, CC) • Coordination of CO2-lean steelmaking programs, Europe & worldwide • Bias for the long term • Chair of Planet WG in the European Steel technology platform • the SOVAMAT initiative • Merging LCA, MFA, prospective economics & ecodesign, with materials as our prime focus • Climate Change & ULCOS • Developing breakthrough technologies to cut CO2 emissions by 50%+ in 2050 GRC, Industrial Ecology

5. Projections, BAU scenario GRC, Industrial Ecology

6. With CO2 breakthrough technologies GRC, Industrial Ecology

7. Menu • who are we? • our vision of PACT • WP3 • partners & network GRC, Industrial Ecology

8. WP1: Cities WP2: networks linking cities PACT? Phase I soft, qualitative vision Phase II harder, quantitative vision VLEEM 2100 WP1: Space and environment WP2: Goods & services 2050 PATHWAYS WP3:Technologies WP4:Transitions POLES 2000 GRC, Industrial Ecology

9. PACT? Phase I soft, qualitative vision Space and environment Status today System scientists Goods & services Poliitical scientists 2100 vision Technologies technologists Qualitative pathways Transitions sociologists Feeding concepts, scenarios & data to the phase II modeling GRC, Industrial Ecology

10. Questions? • what is the initial vision that we share for 2100? • the GEO4 scenarios? • Markets first • Policy first • Security first • Sustainability first • needs to be done very quickly, before we all start in our direction… • overlap between WP2 & WP3 on technologies, materials? • WP1 & WP2 more focused on forecasting than on backcasting? • why do we talk so early about transition paths? GRC, Industrial Ecology

11. Menu • who are we? • our vision of PACT • WP3 • partners & network GRC, Industrial Ecology

12. Structure of WP3 Analysis of technologies & organizations "supply" Technologies for production of intermediary goods and manufacturing of consumer goods-services, with a vision on scale of organizations & availability of resources Qualitative storyline in each cell 1 matrix per scenario Analysis of social needs "demand" Mainly based on the input of WP1 & WP2 Quantitative data for models GRC, Industrial Ecology

13. WP3 • very broad • but a focus on metals & cement GRC, Industrial Ecology

14. Menu • who are we? • our vision of PACT • WP3 • partners & network GRC, Industrial Ecology

15. WP3 – partners & network • small WP: 3 months for AM & 8 months for MEFOS • is this enough? • we need input from experts in various fields to build the set of future technologies and flesh them out sufficiently to "quantify" them • we have our own experts in production of intermediary goods, especially materials • we have access to the SOVAMAT network • we need strong feedback for the other WPs • AM to run brain storming sessions & wrap up the conclusions • MEFOS to develop broad modeling tools on the basis of existing ones for the Steel sector GRC, Industrial Ecology