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Lamar C.I.S.D.

Lamar C.I.S.D. Factors Contributing to Continued Student Growth September 5, 2014 Population and Survey Analysts 303 Anderson Street, College Station, TX 77845 www.pasademographics.com. Population and Survey Analysts. Largest Demographic Firm in Texas Work Only with School Districts

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Lamar C.I.S.D.

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  1. Lamar C.I.S.D. Factors Contributing to Continued Student Growth September 5, 2014 Population and Survey Analysts 303 Anderson Street, College Station, TX 77845 www.pasademographics.com

  2. Population and Survey Analysts • Largest Demographic Firm in Texas • Work Only with School Districts • Work with Approximately 30-35 Districts per Year • Has a 5+ Year Relationship with Lamar C.I.S.D. • Demographic Team includes Specialists in Economics, Geography, Legal Issues, and GIS Systems

  3. Houston Area School Districts with which PASA is Now Workingor Has Recently Completed Projects • La Porte I.S.D. • Magnolia I.S.D. • Montgomery I.S.D. • Needville I.S.D. • New Caney I.S.D. • Royal I.S.D. • Splendora I.S.D. • Spring I.S.D. • Waller I.S.D. • Alief I.S.D. • Barbers Hill I.S.D. • Conroe I.S.D. • Goose Creek I.S.D. • Friendswood I.S.D. • Humble I.S.D. • Katy I.S.D. • Klein I.S.D. • Lamar C.I.S.D.

  4. Past and Future Enrollment Trends • 1991 – 12,835 • 2000 – 15,224 • 2005 – 19,663 • 2010 – 25,556 • 2015 – 33,893

  5. Highest % KN (Districts in the State of Texas with More than 10,000 Students)

  6. Total Projected Additional Housing Occupancies: Summer, 2005-Summer, 2015

  7. Developments with More than 550 Units Projected Between 2005-2015

  8. Jurisdictions Map? Cities and ETJ’s in Lamar C.I.S.D.

  9. Most-Likely Scenario:Assumptions • L.C.I.S.D. area transportation improvements and employment growth stimulate continued home purchases (to offset increases in interest rates) • Interest rates do not increase by more than 2 percent over current levels in next 5 yrs. • Continued availability of affordable new housing • Student population continues to grow at past three-year levels • Iraq and other global concerns do not accelerate • There is no significant change in the percent of immigrants entering the Houston area – since inner Houston area growth spawns out-migration to suburban school districts

  10. Low Growth Scenario:Assumptions • Difficult Iraqi situation continuing • Increased terrorist activity within the U.S. • Liberian, North Korean or other nationwide • geo-political crisis • Thus, consumer confidence falls with a long • recession • Employment does not increase above 1% per yr. • Stock prices remain stationary or again start dropping • Significantly fewer household relocations/fewer older homes sold to younger heads of households

  11. High Growth Scenario:Assumptions • U.S. has no war with Liberia, North Korea, etc. and • a short-term future deployment in Iraq • No further terrorist attacks in the U.S. • Transportation improvements and new employment centers west & southwest of the inner Houston area significantly affect housing purchases • Stock prices recover somewhat, with 10-20% • annual returns • Employment growth returns to 1999 levels • Relocation to suburban locations continues to accelerate

  12. Growth During Strong Economy vs. Weak Economy:1979-1986 vs. 1987-1992 • Katy I.S.D. grew at 65% its previous rate during the Weak Economy • Fort Bend I.S.D. grew at 72% its previous rate during the Weak Economy • Cy Fair I.S.D. grew at 68% its previous rate during the Weak Economy

  13. Growth During Strong Economy vs. Weak Economy:1993-1999 vs. 2000-2002 • Katy I.S.D. grew at 102% its previous rate during the Weak Economy • Fort Bend I.S.D. grew at 105% its previous rate during the Weak Economy • Cy Fair I.S.D. grew at 143% its previous rate during the Weak Economy

  14. What Defines Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographically? • 1,000 added students this school year • 1,500 new homes occupied this past year • 9,500 lots in current and or platted subdivisions yet to be occupied • 32,200 projected added housing units over a 10-year projection period • Continued availability of AFFORDABLE new housing • Lamar C.I.S.D. & Goose Creek C.I.S.D. =highest ratios of students per apt. unit, and on-going apt. construction • Growth in 4 quadrants of the District • Low density of 57 students per square mile • Major transportation improvements = improved access • Houston area employment centers moving West

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