Variables Impacting Water Resources

1. Water & Vulnerability: Global Environmental Change and the Southern African RegionAnton Earle & Anthony TurtonAfrican Water Issues Research Unit (AWIRU)University of PretoriaPaper presented at the SAVI Workshop Maputo June 19-21, 2003. . AWIRU

2. Variables Impacting Water Resources . AWIRU

3. Variables Impacting Water Resources . AWIRU

4. Precipitation produces little runoff in southern African river basins . AWIRU

5. Natural Climatic Variability • Typically only 10 % of MAP available as MAR in Sn African river basins. • Fluctuations in rainfall have a disproportionately large impact on river flow rates. eg – a 10 % drop in rainfall can lead to a 20 – 30 % drop in stream flow. • Droughts and floods often follow each other consecutively – each presenting different threats. • Evapotranspiration is 2 to 10 X MAP. . AWIRU

6. 180 Max.: 16,145 x 106 m3 Mean: 9,863 x 106 m3 Min.: 5,321 x 106 m3 5-year Moving average 160 140 120 Percentage of mean annual inflow 100 80 60 40 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Time (Years) Annual Inflows at Mohembo – Okavango River . AWIRU

7. Responses to variability • Large-scale intra & inter basin transfer schemes constructed. • RSA at 539 large dams is ranked 11th in the world & Zimbabwe 20th with 213 (World Commission on Dams). • 50 % of dams in Africa are for irrigation. • 20 % for water supply. • 1 % for flood control. . AWIRU

8. Ecosystems Under Pressure • Large-scale dams & water transfers pose a threat to eco-systems. • Communities dependant on the ecosystem services are most at risk. . AWIRU

9. Population Dynamics . AWIRU

10. Population Dynamics Severe water scarcity Pop. Growth rates adjusted for country HIV / AIDS prevalence in 2000 . AWIRU

11. Population Dynamics • Water demand is likely to increase – even if population growth is low or zero. • Communities previously without water need to be supplied. • Waste & pollution is likely to increase, placing stress on water quality. • HIV / AIDS reduces the ability of households to pay for water services. . AWIRU

12. Population Dynamics • Marginalised people resort to cultivating land unsuitable for agriculture – possibly causing erosion, eg Lesotho. • Large-scale de-vegetation could possibly lead to a change in the local climate as reflectance increases. • Refugees frequently settle on riverbanks – facing the risk of floods, eg Jukskei River in Johannesburg. . AWIRU

13. Social Adaptive Capacity • A scarcity of a first-order resource (water) can be mitigated by the presence of second-order (social) resources. • Water resources can be used in the most productive activity, frequently industry. • Staple foods, such as grain can be imported – saving 1000 tonnes of local water for every tonne imported (virtual water imports). . AWIRU

14. Med to High Cost Augmented by inter-basin transfers and desalination Water for domestic & industrial use Surface & Ground Water Water available to a country for food production Second-order Resources First-order Resources Hydrological Cycle Soil Water Infiltration Transpiration Water used for 60% of world food production (38% of world’s water reserves) Soil $ Augmented by virtual water $$$ FREE Social Adaptive Capacity • A scarcity of a first-order resource (water) can be mitigated by the presence of second-order (social) resources. . AWIRU

15. Social Adaptive Capacity Cereal production & reliance in RSA, Nam, Bot & Zim – FAO, 2003) . AWIRU

16. Transboundary Waters • No evidence of countries going to war over water over the past century. • 70 % of interactions over water between states have been in the realm of cooperation (agreements, regimes, data-sharing, treaties etc). • Potential for conflict over water increases as scale decreases. . AWIRU

17. 261 shared river basins in the world. 17 deemed to be at risk of conflict by 2012. Six in Sn Africa: Orange, Okavango, Cunene, Incomati, Zambezi, Limpopo. (see Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database, OSU) Sn Africa Shared Rivers . AWIRU

18. Impact of Non-Cooperation • Destabilisation of the region resulting from a negative peace. • No development takes place as the various riparian states cannot agree on equitable sharing of water resources. • Development which does take place is uncoordinated, with a dubious legal standing. . AWIRU

19. Benefit Sharing • Most water law based on the concept of “fair & equitable share”. • The aim should be to move away from water sharing & towards benefit sharing (water included). • Needs a high degree of trust & cooperation between states, as well as social adaptive capacity within states. . AWIRU

20. Strong human resource base Catchment in the Angolan highlands Botswana Namibia Dry Wet National water resources Human capacity to adapt Angola Weak human resource base Okavango Delta - Botswana Flow over Namibian territory The Okavango River Basin -Where Are We Now? What is the Place of Policy? Human factors slow to change or hard to influence Fast-acting human pressures • Treaties & conventions • Population growth & demography • Perceptions & values • Spontaneous human activities • Pressure groups • Vested interests • Demands • for jobs, schools, etc. • Epidemics – HIV/AIDS Today’s Capacity to Cope The Okavango River extends from the highlands of Angola, flows through Namibia’s Caprivi region & ends in the sands of the Kalahari Desert. OKACOM Basin Management 3 National Governments Programmes & policies There are various natural and human pressures influencing decision-making & policy formulation within the Okavango Basin. Some of these are fast-acting, with a direct impact on the governments of the riparian states, while others are very slow-acting with almost no human control possible – these present opportunities and challenges to the populations of the states. The ability of a state to adapt to its situation is dictated by factors such as economic development, institutional environment education levels and health of the population. OKACOM – as the institution responsible for the sustainable management of the Basin - faces the challenge of accommodating the different view points, values, goals, needs and desires of the various stakeholders as they formulate and implement policy. “Where We Are Now” is a collaborative effort of delegates attending the Green Cross International, Water for Peace, Okavango Project’s second workshop in Gobabeb, Namibia. The delegates included OKACOM Commissioners from each of the riparian states, NGOs, local government representatives, academics and researchers. For further information visit: www.up.ac.za/academic/libarts/polsci/awiru or www.gci.ch Project was made possible through the kind funding from Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Department of Development Cooperation, The Netherlands and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sweden • Climate variability & oscillations • The annual flood pulse • Tectonic activity • Soil types & topography • Climate change • Droughts • Floods • Epidemics Ecology of Okavango River Basin & its ecosystem services Fast-acting natural pressures Natural factors no human control . AWIRU Produced by AWIRU for the 3rd World Water Forum, Kyoto Japan, March 2003