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The Enigmatic HDD Industry – Where Smaller IS Better

The Enigmatic HDD Industry – Where Smaller IS Better. IDEMA San Jose September 2004. Here We Go Again. Does the HDD Community spend Their days looking up redundant in a thesaurus, only to find the Definition as: Please see redundant ??– it sure feels that way!. Demand is Not an Issue.

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The Enigmatic HDD Industry – Where Smaller IS Better

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  1. The Enigmatic HDD Industry –Where Smaller IS Better IDEMA San Jose September 2004

  2. Here We Go Again. Does the HDD Community spend Their days looking up redundant in a thesaurus, only to find the Definition as: Please see redundant ??– it sure feels that way!

  3. Demand is Not an Issue • Desktop year-year demand strong • 2004 Desktop to be up ~8-10% • Enterprise holding its own • 2004 Enterprise to be up ~12% • Notebook PCs surging • 2004 Notebook to be up ~25% • CE demand remains white-hot! • 2004 CE shipments will surpass 30M representing an 85+% growth – and ~10% of global market opportunity

  4. Global HDD Shipments Units, Millions

  5. Global SFF HDD Shipments Units, Millions

  6. CAGR Comparisons ! 2003-2007 • 3.5” CAGR = 9% • 2.5”-and-below CAGR = 26% • 2.5” CAGR = 22% • 1.8” CAGR = 44% • <=1.0” CAGR = 90% • Total HDD Market CAGR = 13% • Thus, 3.5” lags the market, but all others are leading the charge!

  7. 2.5” HDD Demand Drivers • Final 2003 result: 46.9 million HDDs • Updated 2004 forecast: 58-60 million • Why so strong?: • Notebook PC demand insatiable • CE applications heating up • Still some MP3 – but dwindling • AIS, routers, switches, printers • Desktop not yet a factor • Enterprise offerings on the way!

  8. 2.5” HDD Capacity Forecasts Units, Millions

  9. 2.5” HDD Markets and Thoughts • Strong notebook PC demand in 2003 – units up 33% sequentially • 2004 Notebook PC forecast: up ~30% • Enterprise is coming – 2H 2004! • Is 2.5” for CE getting squeezed? • CE opportunity not taking hold • MP3 players opting for smaller HDDs • Printer market aimed at high-end • AIS – is HDD needed globally?

  10. 1.8” HDD Demand Drivers • Final 2003 result: 2.7 million HDDs • 2004 forecast: 6.0 million • Why so strong?: • Did you ever hear of an iPod? • Apple and HPQ relationship for hPod • Copycat MP3 players coming full steam • Are pretenders now pPods? • Numerous other CE opportunities • Notebook PC opportunity • Thin, lightweight models

  11. 1.8” HDD Capacity Forecasts Units, Millions

  12. 1.8” HDD Markets and Thoughts • MP3 opportunity is largest – 2003 shipments topped 2 million • 2004 1.8” MP3 forecast: up 115% • Notebook niche expanding • No threat on desktop/enterprise • Today only Toshiba and HGST – where are the others? GS soon? • Many are looking to skip this and go to 1.0” – what does this mean for 1.8”?

  13. <=1.0” HDD Demand Drivers • Final 2003 result: 923,000 HDDs • 2004 forecast: 3+ million • Why so strong?: • Did you ever hear of iPod mini? • Now 4 suppliers – more coming • Digi-Cam (DSC,DVC) demand rising • Mini MP3 (other than iPod mini) • 0.85” announced • Cell phones – the holy grail!

  14. <=1.0” HDD Capacity Forecasts Units, Millions

  15. <=1.0” HDD Markets & Thoughts • MP3 now getting all the press • 2004 1.0” MP3 stumbles early in year doing little to stem demand • Digi Cam picking up – prices lowered! • Now 4 players – HGST, Cornice, GS Magicstor, and STX– more coming • Patent issues hurting GS and Cornice • 0.85” addressing the holy grail of the cell phone market – is it real? YES!!

  16. Inhibitors • Capacity – is there too much? • New facilities all around! • Media Issues in SFF • Limited glass supply • Technology Spending Crisis • Long-term issue, or election year issue • Flash will NOT go away • As much as this has not yet been a large factor, work is ongoing

  17. Infrastructure Readiness • Believe it or not……. • Disk supply is tight • Hoya/NSG controls 70+% of glass • Only a few remaining OEM media suppliers • Head supply is tight • OEM supplier base down to two • Technology challenges hurting output • Areal density curve too challenging? • Perpendicular recording is coming • Who has the technology and money

  18. Size Does NOT Matter

  19. Any Challengers to HDD? • NO, but in the next 5-10 years… • OPTICAL: varying formats, speeds not a threat despite huge market in consumer, PC applications for recording, archiving • FLASH: competitive with 1" HDD in some applications, cost premiums to remain huge – BUT these guys ARE persistent! • OTHERS: MEMS??? • Watch for perpendicular recording (2006?), heat-assisted magnetic recording, millipede-type technologies • HDDs will not be challenged in capacity, bit cost, but watch for flash changes!

  20. Thank you! johnd@trendfocus.com

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