Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

1. Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project Government Office for Science Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills Overview by: Colin Thorne University of Nottingham colin.thorne@nottingham.ac.uk on behalf of the Foresight Team

2. Overview • Project aims • Methodology • River, Coastal and Intra-urban Drivers • Predicting Future Risks (baseline case) • Responses: Structural and nonstructural measures • Costs and Affordability of Responses • Final Messages and Further Information

3. June 2007

4. July 2007

5. Foresight Project Aims • Produce a long-term vision for future flood and coastal risks and their management in the UK. • Cover all aspects of flood & coastal erosion risk for the whole UK, looking 30 – 100 years ahead. • Provide a reliable evidence-base for decision makers, using expert knowledge and high level flood and erosion risk analyses. • Supply the underpinning science for national-level policy making.

6. Methodology

7. The flooding system

8. Foresight Futures 2020

9. Medium-high emissions Medium-low emissions High emissions and Low emissions Low emissions Foresight Futures 2020 + UKCIP2002 climate change scenarios

10. Drivers Processes that change the state of the system Change in risk System state variables System analysis Sources rainfall sea level storm surges wave heights etc. Pathways urban surfaces fields, drains channels flood storage flood defences floodplains Receptors communities homes industries Infrastructure resources ecosystems Risk Probability x consequences (economic, risk to life, social, natural environment etc) Change in risk Responses Interventions that change the state of the system • .

11. Flood Risk Drivers: Deep Description and Qualitative Analysis

12. Future Flood Risks: Drivers of River and Coastal Flooding

13. Drivers of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk “… any phenomenon that changes the state of the flooding system…”

14. Baseline ranking of river and coastal drivers • Socio-economic drivers • Coastal drivers • Precipitation • Big scenario differences

15. Major uncertainties: • Sea level rise • Coastal morphology • Surges • Precipitation • Stakeholder behaviour • Public Attitudes+Expectations

16. Future Flood Risks – Drivers of intra-urban flooding • The catchment and coastal risk analysis treated urban areas as receptor units containing people, property and infrastructure. • Another set of sources and flood pathways at local scales operates within urban areas due to extremely intense rainfall and/or congested drainage (sewer) flooding - termed ‘intra-urban flooding’.

17. Drivers in urban areas • Plus: • Stakeholder behaviour • Urban planning policy

18. Ranking of intra-urban scale drivers • Social impacts • Asset deterioration • Intense Precipitation • Environmental management and regulation

19. Quantitative Analysis of Future Flood and Coastal Erosion Risks (Baseline Case)

20. Modeling: National quantitative risk analysis: Risk Assessment for Strategic Planning Data used: Rivers and coastlines Floodplain mapping Standard of protection Condition of defences Addresses of all properties/people at risk Flood damage by depth Social vulnerability Agricultural land grade

21. Calculating future flood risk

22. Dominant Floodplain Class (2002)

23. Flood Risk Predictions for 2050 and 2080

24. Expected annual damages: £ millions (currently ~ £1billion)

25. Baseline Conclusions: unless we act:- • Future flooding and coastal erosion are very serious threats to the UK. • They represent a major challenge to government and society. • Combining the World Markets and Low emissions scenarios reduces future expected annual economic damages by only ~25%.

26. ResponsesOptions for managing future flood and coastal erosion riskssustainably

27. Potential Responses 80 individual responses Organised into 25 response groups • And5response themes • Reducing urban runoff • Reducing rural runoff • Managing flood events • Managing flood losses • Engineering and large scale re-alignment or abandonment

28. Definition, Function and Efficacy Governance Sustainability Deep Response Descriptions • Costs • Interactions • Case example • Emerging issues • Uncertainty • Potential for implementation under each of the four Foresight future scenarios

29. Responses with the most potential for risk reductions • Structural: Important, but need to rethink Coastal Defences • Non-structural: We can manage down flood & erosion losses

30. How much will it cost – are responses affordable? • The cost of implementing engineering- based structural approach alone to achieve the indicative standard of defence in the 2080s is ~ £52 billion • The cost of using structural defences as part of an integrated portfolio of structural and non-structural responses is ~ £22 billion

31. First level – Briefing notes for elected officials Second level – Technical reports, papers and book Third level – Working documents and project record Fourth level – Video game for practitioners and students Delivering the message

32. Flood Ranger Video Game

33. Final Messages • Future flood and coastal erosion risks are likely to increase due to climate, economic, social and planning drivers if we go on as we are. • We can make it easier or harder for ourselves by our actions on global emissions and governance. • There are feasible and sustainable responses that can hold risk at present day levels affordably - if implemented through Integrated Flood Risk Management. • But we must act now in developing new policies to allow non-structural measures to be effective in time.

34. Closing Statement Have confidence: UK Foresight proves it is possible to develop a long-term vision for IFRM. Politicians will listen and act provided that your messages are clear and are properly supported by the best science and engineering analyses available.

35. Flood Foresight: www.foresight.gov.uk Follow links for flood and coastal defence UK Research Consortium on Flood Risk Management: www.floodrisk.org.uk Further Information

36. Over to the Break-out Groups! Colin Thorne University of Nottingham colin.thorne@nottingham.ac.uk