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  1. Font Test Font Test Font Test Font Test Airplane Airplane Airplane Airplane Airplane Airplane Airplane Airplane Airplane

  2. Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change

  3. Hi there

  4. Technology Change Increases Exponentially High Tech Myth #1 “I was born in the middle of human history.… Almost as much has happened since I was born as happened before.” — Kenneth Boulding, quoted in Future Shock (1970)

  5. Technology Change Increases Exponentially PC + Web Skyscraper Airplane Car, Truck Telephone Electricity Railroad Books

  6. Technology Change Increases Exponentially America is addicted to fossil fuel “… America is addicted to oil.” — Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06 “… America is addicted to oil.” — Pres. Bush, State of the Union address, 1/31/06 Lead-acid battery 1859 Fuel cell 1839 Battery 1799 Incandescent bulb 1880 Solar cell 1850s First 60mph car (electric) 1899

  7. Technology Change Increases Exponentially BUSTED Technology is changing no faster today than it has since the Industrial Revolution

  8. Technology is Inevitable High Tech Myth #2 “You’re either part of the steamroller or part of the road.” — Stuart Brand, author

  9. Technology is Inevitable

  10. Technology is Inevitable

  11. Technology is Inevitable Telephone? Videophone! TV? 3D TV! Weather prediction? Weather control!

  12. Technology is Inevitable Rotary engine Nuclear everything MHD Moving sidewalks Telephone? Videophone! Self-driving cars Artificial intelligence Freeze drying Ebooks Fax newspapers TV? 3D TV! Paper clothes Home robots Moon bases Weather prediction? Weather control! Irradiated food Smart cards Paperless offices 5th generation computers Metric

  13. Technology is Inevitable BUSTED The next shiny new technology is not inevitable

  14. “When you get the urge to predict the future, better lie down until the feeling goes away.” — Forbes, 1978

  15. This is not an academic issue “It must be obvious to anyone with any sense of history and any awareness of human nature that there will be SSTs. And Super SSTs. And Super-Super SSTs. Mankind is simply not going to sit back with the Boeing 747 and say, ‘This is as far as we go.’” — Spiro Agnew, US Vice President, 1972

  16. Today’s Technology Eclipses All High Tech Myth #3 “[The Internet is] the most transforming technological event since the capture of fire. I used to think it was just the biggest thing since Gutenberg, but now I think you have to go back farther.” — John Perry Barlow, an Electronic Frontier Foundation founder (1995)

  17. Today’s Technology Eclipses All The Internet’s important applications aren’t new and the new ones aren’t important

  18. Today’s Technology Eclipses All Ecommerce: $70 billion in 2004 $70 billion

  19. Today’s Technology Eclipses All Ecommerce: $70 billion in 2004 Non-store sales $350 billion

  20. Today’s Technology Eclipses All Ecommerce: $70 billion in 2004 Retail sales $3.6 trillion

  21. Today’s Technology Eclipses All catalogs phone, mail libraries, encyclopedias fast printing presses

  22. Today’s Technology Eclipses All “The Internet changes everything.” — director at Hambrecht & Quist, 1995 Space travel changes everything (’60s) Nuclear power changes everything (’50s)

  23. Today’s Technology Eclipses All 1815: Battle of New Orleans 1844: Morse telegraph 1860: 100K miles of line 1866: transatlantic cable

  24. Today’s Technology Eclipses All Moore’s Law is amazing, but it’s only amazing

  25. Today’s Technology Eclipses All Cost changes 1981–2006: • computing power: 0.02% •PC: 25%

  26. Today’s Technology Eclipses All What benefit to a 100× faster PC? Contrast with a truck Construction equipment Farming equipment Factory machines …

  27. Today’s Technology Eclipses All BUSTED The PC and Internet are valuable new technologies, but no more so than any other major technology since the Industrial Revolution

  28. Technology’s Hidden Costs Laptop costs: • $500 per year? •No: $5000 per year! (Gartner) Software upgrades Maintenance Downtime Training User support Tweaking: $100B/year

  29. Technology’s Hidden Costs $2,700,000,000,000 How much do businesses worldwide spend on Information Technology? every year!

  30. Technology’s Hidden Costs The Wild, Wild Internet >50% of email is spam Spyware Viruses cost $50 billion/year Scams Spam costs $22 billion/year Misinformation Personal web surfing costs $300 billion/year

  31. Technology’s Hidden Costs Stress Happiness

  32. Guidelines for the Technology Consumer 1. Be Skeptical 2. Beware Predictions 3. Permission Slip 4. Debate 5. Relax!