1 / 5

Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

The Experimental Long-Range Flood Outlook (LRO) provides crucial risk assessments for river flooding across the U.S., ensuring communities stay informed. This process involves the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) to analyze data and generate three-month flood stage forecasts. Issued by the 28th of each month, this forecast is updated as necessary. Stakeholders must monitor local Hydrologic Service Areas (HSAs) for accuracy and report inconsistencies. For inquiries or data access, contact the respective regional representatives or Roham Abtahi directly.

john-franklin
Télécharger la présentation

Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook Roham Abtahi Nat’l Hydrologic Information Coordinator OCWWS HSD

  2. Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook

  3. How is LRO produced? • RFCs • Run Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) • Run script which parses CS data by % of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stage • Transmits output to NIDS, who populates national level AHPS “Experimental Long Range River Flood Risk” tab • Issuance Timing • RFCs are requiredto transmit 3 month outlooks by the 28th of each month. • At 23z on the 28th, the national map switches to the next three month valid time • Can send updates as often as they like, but updates are not required

  4. WFO Hydro Program Manager Role • WFOs • Check your local HSA to make sure long range probs look reasonable • Look for inconsistencies between color of forecast point, and actual exceedance graph of that point • What do I do if I find an error? • Call RFC and let them know – most errors will be solved at this level • Contact your Regional HPM • Submit a TOC ticket (rare case) • toc.nwstg@noaa.gov • FYI • Raw national level compilation of RFC probability data • water.weather.gov/ahps/download.php

  5. Questions? Alaska Region: robin.radlein@noaa.gov Western Region: mike.schaffner@noaa.gov Central Region: wendy.pearson@noaa.gov Southern Region: tracy.clark@noaa.gov Eastern Region: laurie.Hogan@noaa.gov Pacific Region: No long range forecast points Me: roham.abtahi@noaa.gov 301-713-0006 ext 150

More Related