Demographics is Destiny (isn’t it)

1. Demographics is Destiny (isn’t it) “Socioeconomic factors structure a state government’s problems and affect their ability to deal with them.” Virginia Grey

2. Why do different states choose different policies? • Socioeconomic • Demographic • Geographic • structure a state government’s problems • affect their ability to deal with them • affect their politics

3. Rich State, Poor State (pci)

4. Rich vs. Poor

9. Industrial vs. Agricultural

10. Industrial vs. Agricultural

11. Growing or Shrinking?

12. Internal Migration Trends • Move from frost belt states to sun belt states • CA, TX, & FL account for half of the entire nation’s population growth in the ‘80s and ‘90s • Rust belt states losing population • School consolidation • Sunbelt states have to pay for new highways, classrooms, prisons, etc.

15. Internal Migration Trends • Flight from central cities to suburbs • White flight • Population density • Coastal states densely populated • Rural urbanized splits within states like IL • 64% live in Chicago area versus downstate

16. Internal Demograhics

17. Urban vs. Rural Urbanization

18. Ethnically Diverse vs. Relatively Homogeneous

22. 2/3 of Immigrants Lived in 6 States, 2000 6 Main Destination States (67% of Immigrants in 2000) Immigration Categories

23. But Top 10 States with Fastest Growing F.B. Pops. Are Different 6 Main Destination States (67% of Immigrants in 2000) Top 10 Growth States 1990-2000 (135-274%) Immigration Categories

24. In 1990, Almost Half of All U.S. Counties Had Less Than 1% Foreign-Born, and Only One-Tenth Had 5% or More. © 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census.

25. By 2000, Only One-Fourth of U.S. Counties Had Less Than 1% Foreign-Born, and One in Five Had 5% or More. © 2006 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 decennial census.

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35. Internal Migration Trends • Poverty • 24% of MS is poor versus 7.3% of NH • Education • 1/4 of population not high school graduates • 1/3 in South • 20% in West • Immigrants • 3/4ths of immigrants are in CA, FL, IL, NJ, NY, TX • 1/3 of Lowell, MA are Cambodian • 20% of AZ, CA, NM, NY, TX, HI do not speak English at home

38. Place • States are constrained by natural resource endowments • Land • Larger states like TX have larger legislative districts, harder to campaign • NH has small districts, can one-on-one campaign • Location and Climate • Location: Near ocean or waterway have advantage • Example: FedEx in Memphis • Climate: People prefer warm to cold • Natural Resources • Oil, minerals, agricultural producers • Oil and mineral producers are more dependent on prices • WY, AL, LA

42. Origins of Differences • Tectonic Plates • Tourists go to FL because it is warm • FL can rely on sales tax to pay for government • LA, TX tax oil and natural gas

43. Origins of Differences • Rivers of New England powered the region in 19th century to build manufacturing economy • Urban living • Labor unions • Political machines

44. Origins of Differences • Soil and climate of Southwest led to cotton and tobacco farming • Big plantations • Slavery • Jim Crow

45. Origins of Differences • Interstate differences • Geographic variation based on who lives near coasts or rivers

46. Origins of Differences • History • 11 states seceded during Civil War • Politics of these states still have unique qualities • Resentment of Union occupation during Reconstruction instilled hostility for national government • Even though very conservative, have been dominated by Democratic Party since Lincoln was a Republican

49. 1888, 2000, 1976, 1892

50. Geology of Political Culture • Function of immigration and migration • Puritans in NE, holy commonwealth • Spread across northern PA, OH to create greater NE in MI, WI, MN, IA • Joined by Scandinavians with similar religious traditional orientation • Moralistic culture flourishes