1 / 28

Spreading democracies or dim -ocracies in the Middle East?

Dr. Bessma Momani University of Western Ontario bmomani@uwo.ca. Spreading democracies or dim -ocracies in the Middle East?. Image: www.caglecartoons.com. Lecture Outline:. What, where is the Middle East? What encourages democratization?

judson
Télécharger la présentation

Spreading democracies or dim -ocracies in the Middle East?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Dr. Bessma Momani University of Western Ontario bmomani@uwo.ca Spreading democracies or dim-ocracies in the Middle East? Image: www.caglecartoons.com

  2. Lecture Outline: • What, where is the Middle East? • What encourages democratization? • Will there be democracy or dim-ocracy in the ME? • Why in the ME, the US is not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’?

  3. Middle East • Geographic area • Not cultural, ethnic, linguistic, or religious • Not all Arab countries

  4. The Arab World…(based on Arab League Membership)

  5. Middle East Political LandscapeCountry Indicators for Foreign Policy Key: 1=Good 9=Poor; Source: http:// www.carleton.ca/cifp/

  6. Authoritarian Middle Eastern Regimes April 2002: 5,000 demonstrate outside Al-Azhar mosque; Source: Al-Ahram • There are more authoritarian regimes in the ME than anywhere else • Repression, exclusion of political participation • ‘insular’/resist globaliz’n • Large youth population • →Hopelessness, extremism What encourages democratization?

  7. Internal Factors that Encourage Democratization… • National unity– ‘togetherness’ • Political leadership-- personalities • Historical legacy-- colonialism • Political culture– people view power • Ethnic harmony-- cooperation • Strong political parties-- brokerage • Political institutions—legisl; judiciary • Socioeconomic development– middle class • Relationship among classes–bourgeoisie • National security– no external threat Map of Saudi Arabia

  8. External Factors thatEncourage Democratization… • International organizations • UN declaration of human rights • International law; ICC • State pressure • EU; foreign aid • Economic Factors • MNCs, entrepreneurs • Globalization • Waves of democracy • Huntington: “snowballing”

  9. George W. Bush on November 6th 2003 at the National Endowment for Democracy “As long as the Middle East remains a place where freedom does not flourish, it will remain a place of stagnation, resentment, and violence, ready for export…. The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution.”

  10. What is the Future of the Political Landscape in the Middle East? Domino Democratization in the Middle East US administration professes Unleashing political darkness: dim-ocracy Skeptics

  11. Democracy…a domino effect? • Latin America • Eastern Europe • Asia • Domino-effect can be a trigger, if internal conditions are favorable… • Middle East/ Arab world next? • See: Democratic Mirage in the Middle Eastwww.ceip.org

  12. Middle Easterners want democracy… • Strong appetite for democracy • Ex. of struggles for democracy: • Early 1980s- Turkey shifted to democracy; military watchdog • 1989, Jordan- Parliamentary elections • 2002 US-FTA • Elections in Bahrain, Morocco • US Free trade candidates • Iran, the youth, reformers • vs. Ayatollahs, religious establishment http://people-press.org/

  13. Push factors for political liberalization… •  of satellite, open media • Expose corruption • ‘neighborhood effect’ • Ex. Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya • Challenges state-owned media • But, In Iraq, both banned for unfavorable coverage of US occupation • Spread of Internet • Organizing movements • Criticize government • Outlet for banned media

  14. A classified Feb. 26, 2003, State Department report by the Bureau of Intelligence and Research entitled:Iraq, the Middle East and Change: No Dominoes "even if some version of democracy took root ... anti-American sentiment is so pervasive that Iraqi elections in the short term could lead to the rise of Islamic-controlled governments hostile to the United States." Reported by Greg Miller at www.latimes.org

  15. Or…Dim-ocracy… • Igniting the ‘Arab streets’ • Populist, unorganized, anti-government demonstrations • → Civil war in each state? • ↑hatred and terror on US interests • Backlash • Rise of Islamists: critical of their governments and the US

  16. For the US: Islamic Governments mean→dim-ocracy? • Popular Islamist movements /parties • Conservative, anti-liberal values, some anti-US • Would the US want to see Islamist-controlled governments • ? Eliminate democracy • Extreme scenario is that these parties create Islamic states • Ex. 1979 Iran

  17. Algeria: Déjà vu…. • 1992: Islamist party (FIS) won elections • Military backed-regime cancelled elections • Algeria civil war: • 130,000 killed in the past 10 years • State of emergency, human rights violations • taught other Islamists to go underground and to not trust region's secular elites • Suppressed in Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia • Clinton administration: authoritarian regimes better than Islamist regimes

  18. Case in point: Egypt • US foreign aid to Egypt: over US $2 B • b/c US fear ‘Algerian scenario’ • Preferable to keep the status quo • With US approval, the Egyptian government represses and prevents democratic movements…

  19. How the Egyptian government prevents/represses democratization…. • Media censorship • No mention of any opposition party allowed on state TV in 1995 • Restricting fundraising of political parties • Banning religious parties • All unions are gov’t controlled • State employees: intellectuals, journalists • Outlaws demonstrations, indefinite detentions (50,000 political prisoners)

  20. Problem: US not deemed to be an ‘honest broker’ in the ME Four general reasons… • Negative view of US foreign policy • Iraqi occupation/ democratization going poorly • The oil connection • Bush’s post 9-11 evil vs. good rhetoric

  21. 1) Perception of US Foreign Policy Image and table: http://people-press.org/

  22. 2) Iraqi occupation going poorly • Insecurity/ Anarchy • Civilian deaths • Political round-up • de-Baathification • Unemployment (<50%) • Electrical Blackouts • Also water & fuel

  23. 2) Iraqi democracy …really? • US plans for ‘Iraqi sovereignty’ • CPA appoint 18 organizing committees that will then select delegates • These delegate then select the representatives of the legislative. • The representatives have an internal vote to elect ministers and an executive. • BUT…Shia (60%)- Al-Sistani • want direct elections immediately

  24. 3) Oil…the motive of the US invasion of Iraq? • WMD? • None of the hijackers from Iraq; No connection to 9-11 • Iraq not a hotbed for religious extremism • ►Get Iraqi oil to break OPEC strength • Hijackers from Saudi Arabia

  25. 3) The OIL connection • Iraqi facilities need to be rehabilitated • US emphasizing US contracts • Bush admin. too connected to oil • Ex. VP Cheney’s • KBR awarded contracts.

  26. 4) US reference to moral/ religious rhetoric post 9-11… The ME hears the Bush administration’s… • Axis of evil • Good vs. evil • Anti-Islam comments • by General Boykin • Repeated in Arab media

  27. Final thoughts… • It is unclear whether external involvement such as the American occupation of Iraq will be enough to spark democracy in the ME • Internal factors do not appear conducive, especially in Iraq • The US not deemed to be an honest broker in the ME, and there may be increased backlash as a result • Finally, if true democracy spread throughout the ME and if Islamist parties predictably came to power…what would this mean to US interests in the region.

  28. Video… …this video is available for viewing online for free, log on to : http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/truth/

More Related