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Water Scarcity, Climate Change, and Extremism in Iraq and Syria

This article explores the relationship between water scarcity, climate change, and the rise of extremism in Iraq and Syria. It discusses the role of water scarcity in the conflict, the weaponization of water, and provides recommendations for engagement. The article emphasizes the need for further study and actions to address these issues.

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Water Scarcity, Climate Change, and Extremism in Iraq and Syria

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  1. Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Violent extremism in Iraq and Syria Marcus DuBois King, Ph.D. John O. Rankin Associate Professor August 24, 2015

  2. Water Scarcity and Extremism Project: Key Hypotheses • (H1) Water scarcity is one causal factor in the Syria and Iraq conflict • (H2) Water “weaponzation” is accelerating and perpetuating the conflict

  3. A satellite view (2014) showing the two main rivers running from Turkey through Syria and Iraq. Credits: MODIS/NASA

  4. Map of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

  5. Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

  6. Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

  7. Maps of Drought Vulnerability & ISIS Territory

  8. Levels of Climate Change Effects in Syria • Effects from human responses • Examples: Inadequate policy responses, mass migrations, conflict • Changes in physical environment • Example: higher temperatures • Effect on ecological systems • Example: droughts, desertification • Effect on human systems • Example: severe stress on agriculture, food security

  9. Hypothesis 1: Conclusions • Climate change induced water scarcity played a meaningful but complicated role in creating desperate conditions that led to political unrest and ultimately violent insurrection. • Violence was perpetrated by IS and others. • Drought, food insecurity, poverty and migration were progressive effects that led to desperation. • More study needed to assign relative weight to effects. • Projected climate change will worsen in next 10-20 years NEXT SECTION: water “weaponzation” is also causing lasting damage to the vulnerable populations

  10. Categories of Water Weaponization(based on perpetrators intent) • Strategic Weaponization • Tactical Weaponization • Instrument of Psychological Terrorism • Instrument of Extortion and Incentivization • Unintentional Weaponization

  11. Water as a Weapon in Syria and Iraq: Incidents Workbook

  12. Combatants’ Use of Water as a Weapon

  13. Water Weaponizationby Cluster and Combatants Source: King and Allers 2015

  14. H2: Islamic State: Use of the Water Weapon • IS threat to use the water weapon was the key accelerant that precipitated U.S. direct involvement • Use of the water weapon has been a critical enabler and perpetuator of the IS war campaign • Use of the water weapon is problematic from a legal and theological standpoint. • Successful denial of IS’s ability to use the water weapon may be the decisive element in determining whether they can be defeated.

  15. Recommendationsfor U.S. Engagement • Defense: First, do no harm. Prevent military ecological damage to water bodies and installations. Apply understanding of IS’s use of the water weapon to Counterinsurgency (COIN) strategies. • Development:Incorporate restoration of water infrastructure as high priority in post-conflict stabilizationprograms • Diplomacy:Support creation of a river commission and application and enforcement of international laws ENMOD and the Geneva Convention Additional Protocol II.

  16. QUESTIONS?mdking@gwu

  17. Drought map: • Erian, W., Katlan, B. & Babah, O. Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study: Syria, The United Nations Office for Disaster and Risk Reduction • ISIS map: • 'Syria: Mapping the conflict - BBC News ', BBC News, 10 July 2015. <http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-22798391>, (accessed on 05 August 2015).

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