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Water quality and climate change

This presentation by Dr. Glenn Watts explores the interconnections between climate change and water quality, focusing on potential impacts and adaptation strategies. It covers drivers of change, including temperature and rainfall projections for the 2050s and 2080s, as well as modelling questions related to scale and thresholds. The discussion highlights the mobility of contaminants, nutrient leaching, and the effects of urban discharges. Recommendations for adaptive management are presented to better cope with uncertainties in water quality responses due to climate change, emphasizing the need for effective regulatory approaches.

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Water quality and climate change

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  1. Water quality and climate change Dr Glenn Watts Evidence Directorate 19 March 2011

  2. Structure Drivers of change in water quality Possible impacts Modelling - scale and thresholds Implications for adaptation

  3. Drivers – temperature 2080s medium emissions Source UKCP09

  4. Rainfall 2080s, medium emissions Source UKCP09

  5. Winter flows 2050s medium emissions, long term average changes Source CEH – Environment Agency “future flows”

  6. Summer flows 2050s medium emissions, long term average changes Source CEH – Environment Agency “future flows”

  7. Possible impacts of climate change on water quality Mobility and dilution of contaminants Chemical reaction rates Sediment mobilisation, transport and deposition

  8. Impacts in Wales Urban discharges Flashy rivers Reduced dilution Agriculture Nutrient leaching Uplands Dissolved organic carbon and colour Sediment loads and deposition Acidification – from intense rainfall and droughts Lakes Temperature and eutrophication Mine waste mobilisation

  9. Modelling questions: scale field catchment reach

  10. Modelling questions:thresholds Do current approaches cope with changes of state? Empirical and conceptual models response State change threshold input

  11. Climate change adaptation Uncertainty cascade Climate model Hydrological model Chemical model Ecosystem model

  12. Approaches to adaptation Best estimate plus uncertainty Scenario planning – exploring risk tolerances Probabilistic approaches Climate sensitivity

  13. Why examine the impact of climate change on water quality? To inform effective adaptation Understand possible impacts Evaluate different management responses Improve approaches to regulation

  14. A strategy for adaptation Willows and Connell 2002

  15. Further research Processes and responses Thresholds and climate sensitivity Links from field to catchment scale Possible adaptation measures Catchment scale management measures

  16. Summary & conclusions Climate change affects flow and thermal regimes Water quality response complex Questions: field scale to catchment scale thresholds and climate sensitivity Do we understand adaptation measures?

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