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Punditry Invention

Punditry Invention. Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures September 2009. 1. “All progress depends on the unreasonable man.” - George Bernard Shaw . 2. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” - Paul Romer. 3. reality check?. 4.

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Punditry Invention

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  1. Punditry Invention Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures September 2009 1

  2. “All progress depends on the unreasonable man.” - George Bernard Shaw 2

  3. “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” - Paul Romer 3

  4. reality check? 4

  5. “The telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” - Western Union Internal Memo, 1876 5

  6. “There is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their home.” - Ken Olsen, President, Chairman and Founder of DEC, 1977 6

  7. “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” - Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895 7

  8. Extrapolating the past… “A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” NY Times, 1936 The reality… The V-2, in 1942, Sputnik in 1957, and many more… 8 Source: http://listverse.com/2007/10/28/top-30-failed-technology-predictions/

  9. Extrapolating the past… 1949: “Where a calculator like the ENIAC today is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh only 1½ tons.” The reality… 9 Source: Popular Mechanics, Wikipedia

  10. forecasting 10

  11. “It is the mark of an educated person to look for precision only as far as the nature of the subject allows.” - Aristotle 11

  12. oil price forecasts (1985-2005) $51 5 year forecast error Forecast 10 year forecast error Actual $15 1985 1990 1995 2000 12 Data/Source: World Oil Prices Barrel) (current $ / - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting

  13. gas price forecasts (1985-2005) $8.00 5 year forecast error 10 year forecast error Forecast Actual $1.00 1985 1990 1995 2000 13 Data/Source: Natural Gas Wellhead Prices (current $ /1000cf) - EIA Office of Integration Analysis and Forecasting

  14. EIA Oil Price Forecasts: 2005 through 2009 2009 forecast The same regression repeated year after year! 2008 forecast 2007 forecast 2006 forecast Colored arrows represent price range for previous year 2005 forecast 2005 2030 15 Source: EIA, data for Imported Low-Sulfur Light Crude Oil (2006-2009), 2005 forecast is “world oil price”

  15. World Oil Supply Projections: 2006-2030? 16 Source: Foreign Policy, citing McKinsey Global Institute

  16. telecommunications: actual vs. forecast demand 1,000 GB/s 1995 projection 1987 projection 1983 projection 1980 projection 1978 projection 1 GB/s 17 Source: internal forecasts for major telecommunications company

  17. Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers 1980 forecast for 2000 forecast actual 18 Source: American Heritage Magazine - http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/magazine/it/2007/3/2007_3_8.shtml

  18. yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast 1980’s phone: year 2000 phone: 19

  19. quantitative modeling flaws • models with given inputs are precise but inaccurate • low “standard deviation”, but with high “standard error” • input the measurable, ignore the immeasurable • obscured embedded assumptions 20

  20. the folly of predictions: tetlock study hundred’s of experts. 80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years Results: Experts are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys 21 Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1

  21. more? … specialists are not significantly more reliable than non-specialists in guessing what is going to happen in the region they study… 22 Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1

  22. why? “…. experts were much tougher in assessing the validity of information that undercut their theory than they were in crediting information that supported it.” - Tetlock 23 Source: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/12/05/051205crbo_books1

  23. The losing mentality… “If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." - Spencer Silver on work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads. Source: Wikipedia

  24. “extrapolation of the past” vs. “inventing the future” 25

  25. redefining swans 26

  26. “black swan” …rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability 27 Source: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan”

  27. calera ... turning problem carbon dioxide into a feedstock. 28

  28. kior “a million year crude production cycle reduced to hours?” 29

  29. transonic/ecomotors “50-100% more efficient engines cutting world oil consumption in half” 30

  30. soraa “10X less electricity use for lighting” 31

  31. battery black swan rumblings? 32

  32. moore’s law: not a new paradigm! $1,000 of computing buys exponential scale vacuum tube integrated circuit (moore’s law!) electromechanical relay transistor Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace! 33

  33. “relevant scale” solutions for ... oil ... coal ... materials ... (efficiency of oil & coal use) 34

  34. “...relevant cost” “...relevant scale” “...relevant adoption” 35

  35. reality: electric cars 36

  36. reality: $2,500 nano 37

  37. reality: electric cars 38 38

  38. reality: electric cars over next 40 years, car fleet = 3 billion cars … China (2050) = total worldwide fleet today … India (2050) = 50X current Indian fleet … and yet I am optimistic! 39 Source: The Economist

  39. as surely as... 1985:NOT a PC in every home 1990: NOemail for grandma 1995: NOTthe internet 2000: NOpervasive mobile 2005: NOfinancial implosion 2010+: reason for optimism 40

  40. reason for optimism: users radio TV cable internet 50 million 1922 2002 41 Source: Morgan Stanley

  41. “…every strategic inflection point [is] characterized by a ‘10X’ change …” “There’s wind and then there is a typhoon, there are waves and then there’s a tsunami” - Andy Grove 42

  42. exponential innovation… assuming ~2% rate of change… = X units to predict 2040 in 2010, we would need to predict 2010 in 1926! = X units 2040 2010 1926 43

  43. world electricity demand (18,000 TWh/y) can be produced from 300 x 300 km² =0.23% of all deserts distributed over “10 000” sites land is not (remotely) a constraint 3000 km 45 Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona

  44. three billion acres... 46

  45. negawatt energy savings! 47

  46. negabarrel energy efficiencies! 48

  47. brian arthur’s evolution... 49

  48. path to black swans... more shots on goal! 50

  49. nine dots problem 51 Source: Amory Lovins, RMI

  50. standard nine dots solution 52 Source: Amory Lovins, RMI

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