Perspectives on Vulnerability

1. Perspectives on Vulnerability Oran R. Young GCP SSC 4 Paris, 15 June 2005

2. Vulnerability • Definition (Turner et al 2003) “Vulnerability is the degree to which a system, subsystem, or system component is likely to experience harm due to exposure to a hazard, either a perturbation or stress/stresssor.”

3. Vulnerability • Systems: vulnerability of what to what? • Communities to natural hazards (draughts, floods, storms, famines) • Special case of individuals/families/neighborhoods • Institutions (e.g. resource regimes) to environmental change/anthropogenic change • Ecosystems/biophysical systems (e.g. carbon pools) to anthropogenic change • SESs to environmental change (e.g. climate change) • Human-environment interactions

4. Vulnerability • Elements of vulnerability analysis • Exposure/sensitivity/coping capacity or adaptability • Scale and scalar effects • Differences across spatial/temporal scales • Interactions across scales can increase/decrease vulnerability

5. Vulnerability • Focus on exposure • stresses/threats/ hazards/ perturbations/risks • Types/characteristics of stress: • Individual • Multiple • Interactive • Cumulative • Narrow/broad • Gradual/sudden/abrupt

6. Vulnerability • Focus on sensitivity • Resistance to external pressure/disturbance • Some factors leading to variations in degrees of sensitivity • General health/robustness • Knowledge/skills • Reserves (e.g. wealth) • Entitlements (e.g. rights to food, water) • Availability of help from other systems

7. Vulnerability • Focus on response/coping capacity • Role of resilience in this framework • Resilience = resistance + adaptability • Forms of response • Anticipatory/reactive • Mitigation/adaptation • Defensive/collaborative • Adaptation/learning/intentional change • Stress management strategies • Prevention, preparedness, response • Trial runs

8. Vulnerability • Vulnerability as the DV • Measurement issues • Can we devise a general/generic measure of vulnerability or is vulnerability issue or case specific? • Does it matter? • Can we make progress without such a measure • Possible indicators of vulnerability • Compare other indicator efforts – e.g. DJIA for health of the economy; HDI for state of human welfare, numerous efforts to measure SD

9. Vulnerability • IVs – explaining/predicting variations in vulnerability • Some relevant factors • Diversification • Substitutability • Natural and social capital • Reserves/stored resurces • Aptitude for learning • External support/subsidies • Idea of syndromes • Recurrent combinations (e.g. Sahel Syndrome)

10. Vulnerability • Consequences of vulnerability • What happens when stresses mount? • Maintenance with little change • Adaptive management • State changes • Multiple equilibria • Thresholds, triggers, flips, domains of attraction • System change/transformation • Transitions vs. state changes

11. Vulnerability • Applications to our case • The importance of focusing on coupled or social-ecological systems • Scientific importance • Mandate of GCP as an ESSP project • Policy relevance

12. Vulnerability • Application to our case (cont’d) • The value of focusing on one or two cases • And bearing down on the SES issues • Selection criteria • Probability of occurrence • Consequences for society • Scientific tractability • Opportunity to improve understanding of social-ecological systems

13. Vulnerability • Application to our case (cont’d) • Proposal – boreal and tropical forests • Biophysical processes • Anthropogenic drivers • Human responses

14. PROGRAM ON GOVERNANCE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Bren School of Environmental Science & Management University of California at Santa Barbara http://www.gsdprogram.org ORAN R. YOUNG Director Young@Bren.ucsb.edu Phone: 805-893-8437 Fax: 805-893-7064