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Economic Rebound Prospects: Insights from the ABC Rocky Mountain Chapter

On April 18, 2013, Anirban Basu, Chief Economist of ABC, shared insights at the Rocky Mountain Chapter meeting. He discussed projected world output growth and trends in U.S. employment, GDP, industrial production, and construction activity. Drawing on data from the International Monetary Fund, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other reputable sources, Basu analyzed economic indicators and their implications for various industries. This presentation highlighted both challenges and opportunities in the economic landscape as the nation moved towards recovery.

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Economic Rebound Prospects: Insights from the ABC Rocky Mountain Chapter

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of: ABC – Rocky Mountain Chapter AnirbanBasu, Chief Economist, ABC April 18, 2013

  2. First Pitch

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014* *2012-2013 data are projections Source: International Monetary Fund

  4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2013 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

  5. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  6. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  7. S&P Select Sector Performance2012 Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poor’s Source: Dow Jones; Standard & Poor’s

  8. Fourth Quarter Earnings for Select CorporationsEarnings per Share Source: Dow Jones; Standard & Poor’s

  9. Red Card/Pink Slip

  10. Recession Watchas of March 2013 Source: Moody’s Economy

  11. Industrial ProductionJanuary 2001 through March 2013 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  12. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2012Q4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2002 through March 2013 Mar. 13: +88K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  14. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorMarch 2013 v. March 2012 All told 1,910K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  15. National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeJanuary 2002 through March 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  16. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2012 v. December 2011 Percent Change U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. State-by-state Growth in Construction JobsFebruary 2013 v. February 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics *Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.

  18. Colorado Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)February 2013 v. February 2012Absolute Change WI Total: +62.8K; +2.7% US Total (SA): +2,027K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Denver-Aurora-Broomfield MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)February 2013 v. February 2012Absolute Change Denver Total: +37.5K; +3.1% CO Total (SA): +66.7K; +2.9% US Total (SA): +2,027K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. Colorado Springs MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)February 2013 v. February 2012Absolute Change Co. Springs Total: +5.0K; +2.0% CO Total (SA): +66.7K; +2.9% US Total (SA): +2,027K; +1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) February 2013 U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.6 percent; April Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  22. Unemployment Rates, Selected Large Metros (NSA)February 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  23. Pad Save

  24. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through March 2013 Source: Freddie Mac

  25. U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through February 2013 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

  26. U.S. Housing StartsJanuary 1999 through March 2013 Source: Census Bureau

  27. ABC’s National Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) Average2009Q1 through 2012Q4 2011Q4– 2012Q4: 2.4% Source: ABC

  28. Architecture Billings IndexDecember 2007 through February 2013 Source: The American Institute of Architects

  29. Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceJuly 2006 through February 2013 Oct. 08: $719.0 billion Feb. 12: $575.6 billion -19.9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  30. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by SubsectorFebruary 2013 v. February 2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  31. Large Construction Project Underway • California High Speed Rail: $68 billion, to be completed in 2028: 1 • O’Hare Airport Modernization (Chicago, IL): $8.8billion, to be completed in 2016; 2 • Dulles Transit Extension: $6.2 billion, started in 2008 and to be competed in 2016;3 • New York’s Water Tunnel, No. 3: $5.5 billion–$6.0 billion, began in 1970 and expected to complete in 2020;4 • Alaskan Way Viaduct (Seattle, WA): $3.1 billion, to be opened in 2015;5 • Ohio River Bridge (Indiana & Kentucky): $2.6 billion;6 • Boston Convention Ctr. Expansion: $2.0 billion, hotels will open in 2015; 7 • Shepherd’s Flat Wind Farm (OR): $2 billion;8 • Goethals bridge replacement (NY&NJ): $1.5 billion, to be completed by 2018;9 • Port of Long Beach Middle Harbor Project (CA): $1.2 billion, 10 years to complete.10 Source: Smartplanet.com; 2.Governing.com; 3. Id; 4.NYC.gov; 5.Governing.com; 6. Bizjournals.com ; 7. Boston.com; 8. Sustainablebusinessoregon.com; 9. Cicnysb.firstdaystory.com; 10. Bridgemi.com

  32. Inputs to Construction PPIJanuary 2001 - March 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  33. Key Commodity PricesJanuary 2001 - March 2013 Source: BLS: EIA

  34. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through February 2013 February 2013 = 94.8 where 2004=100 Source: Conference Board

  35. Fourth Quarter • Economy slowed markedly during last year’s fourth quarter; • First half of 2013 also shaping up to be quite soft, though first three months were better than expected – sequestration will grind into the economy and into the data during the summer; • Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; • Many headwinds remain and the nascent recovery could easily falter; • Colorado’s economy has improved and the long-term outlook remains very promising; and • Construction now participating in recovery, particularly west of the Mississippi.

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