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Benson Economic Outlook

Benson Economic Outlook. 2013. National Economy. Recession ended June 2009, slow recovery since 2008-2009: 8.7 million jobs lost 2010-2013 (May): 6.3 million jobs gained GDP up 15 consecutive quarters Unemployment still high: 7.6% (May)

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Benson Economic Outlook

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  1. Benson Economic Outlook 2013

  2. National Economy • Recession ended June 2009, slow recovery since • 2008-2009: 8.7 million jobs lost • 2010-2013 (May): 6.3 million jobs gained • GDP up 15 consecutive quarters • Unemployment still high: 7.6% (May) • Some positive signs (housing, labor market, consumer confidence) • Fiscal policy/sequestration/budget cuts remain a threat • Monetary policy/interest rates supportive of growth

  3. Arizona Economy

  4. Benson & Cochise County Local Economy

  5. Cochise County Retail Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  6. Benson Retail Sales Tax Revenue Growth Compared to same month previous year; unadjusted

  7. Retail Sales

  8. Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  9. Restaurant and Bar Sales

  10. Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

  11. Accommodation Sales

  12. Sales Outlook • Countywide retail on rebound but sequestration/defense cuts threaten • Countywide hospitality will continue to struggle, particularly accommodation • Benson sales, particularly hospitality, will continue to improve

  13. Unemployment * Jan-May only; seasonally adjusted

  14. Unemployment (Monthly)

  15. Nonfarm Job Growth (Cochise County) Compared to same month previous year

  16. Job Gains/Losses (Cochise County) 12 months ended May 2013

  17. Job Gains/Losses % (Cochise County) 12 months ended May 2013

  18. Employment Outlook • National and state labor market improving • Government job losses (Fort Huachuca and state/local) pose threat • Border security deal may boost federal employment • Nearby job creation (e.g., Rosemont Mine, Red Horse Wind Project, Sierra Vista hospital construction) may help Benson residents

  19. New Residential Construction SFR Permits

  20. Home Sales MLS only

  21. Home Prices Median Price (site-built only) * 1st Quarter only

  22. Outlook • New residential construction stalled due to competition from foreclosures • Existing home sales volume given boost from foreclosures/lower prices

  23. Conclusion • National economy hampered by fiscal woes/federal budget cuts, but some positive signs • State economy improving • County • Defense budget cuts • Border security deal may help • Benson • Highway construction completed • Job creation in nearby areas • UAS training facility?

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