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Understanding Population Dynamics: Growth, Decline, and Stabilization Trends

Explore factors influencing population size, growth, and decline. Learn about birth and death rates, immigration, and case studies on population changes in the US. Understand the impact of factors like fertility rates, immigration, and cultural beliefs on population trends.

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Understanding Population Dynamics: Growth, Decline, and Stabilization Trends

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  1. Population Size Factors (7-2) Jeff Roberge

  2. Growth or Decline • Populations can shrink or grow • Based on population change • Pop change=(B+I)-(D+E) • Measured annually • When (B+I) larger, pop increases • (D+E) larger, pop decreases • Population change= number of people added or taken from total population each year of a specified location (“Texas Population”)

  3. Growth or Decline • Demographers study populations • Use crude birth rate and • Crude death rate • Equal to number of deaths/births per 1000 people (“National Population”)

  4. Population • Population Graph • China most populous • Then India • And USA (Miller)

  5. Population Stabilization (“Below Replacement”) • Have fewer babies to control population • Fertility Rate-number of children born to a woman • Two types: Replacement-level fertility rate and total fertility rate (TFR) • Replacement= ave. number of children to replace the parents (usu. ~2.1) • Still does not control pop. because children will begin to have children, carries on growth for 50 more years • TFR= ave. number of children per woman

  6. Population Stabilization • TFR has been declining • 2007 Global ave=2.7 • Developed countries 1.6 (from 2.5 in 1950) • Developing countries 2.9 (from 6.5 in 1950) • Still above replacement-level of 2.1 • Therefore pop is not declining (Da Vanzo)

  7. Children as laborers Cost of children (education, Costs $250,000 to raise child to 18) Possibility to attain a pension Urban living vs. rural living Advancement opportunities for women Infant mortality rate-# of death per 1000 of children under 1 years old Age when married Ability to get abortions Birth control Religious beliefs Tradition and culture Factors Affecting Birth

  8. Factors Affecting Death • Life Expectancy-ave. number of years expected to live • Nutrition • Disease • Medical availability • Health care for pregnant women

  9. Population Change • Caused by: • birth rates • Fallen/risen death rates • Emigration/Immigration • Migration-moving of people into or out of a population • Seek better jobs, improvement • Conflicts, political strife, war, disasters, escape religious intoleration

  10. Case Studies • US Population • 76 mil (1900) to 302 mil (2007) • 1946-1964 is the baby boom (79 mil added to population) • Max TFR was 3.7, but now around replacement level • 2007 TFR was 2.05; 1.6 in China • USA still growing: 60% births, 40% immigration • Expected to be: • 419 mil by 2050 • 571 mil by 2100 (Miller)

  11. Case Studies • US immigration • Accepts twice the immigrants as all other countries added together • 40% of growth • 1820-1960- most immigrants from Europe • Now most from Latin America (53%), Asia (25%), Europe (14%) • Of Latin America: 67% are Mexicans (Vogel)

  12. Case Studies • For immigration • Need it to keep culture and standing as place of better horizons • Needed for jobs most others reject, boost economy

  13. Case Studies • Against- 60% of people against imm. • Mostly poor • Will help stop population growth • Better for ecological footprint with less people (“Immivasion”)

  14. Conclusion • Population grows through increased births/decreased deaths and higher immigration than emigration • Population is mostly decided by total fertility rate

  15. Works Cited “Below Replacement Fertility.” Singapore: The Last Ten Years. Aug. 2001. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.gov.sg/ndr/p62.htm>. Da Vanzo, Julie and David Adamson. “Russia’s Demographic ‘Crisis’: How Real is it?” July 1997. Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP162/index2.html>. “Immivasion.” 2003. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.immivasion.us/>. Miller, Jr., G. Tyler, and Scott Spoolman. Environmental Science: Problems, Concepts, and Solutions. 12th ed. US: Cengage Learning, 2008. “National Population Report.” Development Planning Unit of the British Virgin Islands. 21 Nov. 2005. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.dpu.gov.vg/AboutOurCountry/NationalPopRepICPD/Images/4.2.4.gif>. “Texas Population Change 1900-2000.” 11 July 2005. Texas Department of State Health Services. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/gis/PopulationChangeMap.shtm>. Vogel, Richard D. “Mexican and Central American Labor: The Crux of the Immigration Issue in the U.S.” 20 June 2006. 4 Jan. 2009 <http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/vogel200606.html>.

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