New Values: Policies to Manage Forest Carbon

1. New Values: Policies to Manage Forest Carbon

2. Rest of term • November 12 - forest carbon 1, Tutorial 4 • November 14 – carbon (cont) • Brief due • November 18 (Monday) – EBM simulation • November 19 (Lecture) – comparative • November 19 (evening) – area-based simulation • November 21 – conclusion 1 • November 26 – conclusion 2 • November 28 – NO CLASS • December 12 – 3:30-5:30 final exam

3. Context: Forest Offset Controversy

4. Key question: are carbon offsets… • legitimate reductions in GHGs that should, if properly regulated, play an meaningful role in climate policy or • Sketchy subsidies that provide dubious contributions to reducing GHGs, and should not be including in sincere climate policies

5. Agenda – today and Thursday • Emerging values • Forest Carbon 100 • How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation • BC Climate policy • General • Forest carbon • Policy Design Issues • Promoting Wood • Bioenergy (briefly) • conclusion

6. Forest offset policy – design issues • Ownership • Rules for what counts • Scope • Including wood products • Quantification • Permanence • Leakage • Monitoring • Additionality

7. BC Emission Offset Regulation (OAG summary)http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/ggrta/pdf/offsets-reg.pdf • The project has to start after November 29, 2007 • The project cannot be required by law or regulation. • It must be demonstrated that the project faces financial, technological or other obstacles which are overcome, or partially overcome, by the incentive of being recognized as an emission offset • The financial implications of the baseline scenario need to be considered • Must be validated and by accredited 3rd party

8. Forest Carbon Offset Protocol http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/mitigation/pdfs/FCOP_final-dec7-overview.pdf

9. Forest Protocol 1 - Scope • Afforestation • Reforestation • Improved forest management – examples: • Conservation areas • Increasing rotation age • Increasing forest cover constraints (reduce harvest) • Increase proportion of harvested wood products • Conservation/avoided deforestation

10. Forest Protocol 2Additionality (incrementality) • sequestration and storage of carbon in above- and below-ground parts of trees beyond what would occur under the baseline scenario • No baseline established; project proponent proposes one for PCT approval

11. Example of additionality (Grieg and Bull) Carbon stored

12. Another depiction of additionality http://www.dehst.de/SharedDocs/Bilder/EN/charts/chart_JI-CDM_Baseline.png?__blob=normal&v=3

13. leakage • Where a project changes the level of goods or services provide, causing a subsequent change to supply outside the area • 2 types • Land use shifting • Harvest shifting • 2 sources • Internal leakage (lands controlled by project owner) • External leakage – the broader market (not necessarily in same jurisdiction)

14. Darkwoodscase • 55,000 ha private forest land in Kooteneys • PCT description • Bought by Nature Conservancy Canada • NCC sold 450,ooo tonnes of credits to PCT

15. Darkwoods – case for • “NCC carries out the stewardship of Darkwoods, resulting carbon being sequestered over time in addition to what would have happened in the absence of NCC’s conservation efforts. Had NCC not purchased the property, it likely would have been developed or logged at an intensive, “liquidation harvest,” level.”

16. Darkwoods– baseline issues • Baseline assumed to be harvesting 300,000 m3/yr • NCC said it would log 10,000 per year, carbon in the remaining timber is the offset • Actual harvesting rate 2001-07: 57,000 • What appropriate baseline is uncertain

17. Darkwoods– OAG critique

18. Darkwoods– OAG critique

19. Darkwoods– OAG critique • Concern that carbon accounting outfits helping develop projects and those verifying project have a conflict of interest • Government not being sufficient diligent in scrutinizing justification for project

20. Fallout from OAG report • Attacks of incompetence from offseters • Members of OAG audit team fired (uncertain whether related to case) • Commitment by government to review PCT

21. The GBR Case • Big GBR carbon offset projects • May be used to offset LNG expansion • Challenges to additionality

22. Agenda • Emerging values • Forest Carbon 100 • How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation • BC Climate policy • General • Forest carbon • Policy Design Issues • Promoting Wood • bioenergy • conclusion

23. Promoting use of wood • Wood First Act (Bill 9 – 2009) • Sector wide initiative: Promote use of wood • Framing: “wood is good”

24. Strategic Actor Analysis • Through class participation

25. Agenda • Emerging values • Forest Carbon 100 • How forests can contribute to GHG mitigation • BC Climate policy • General • Forest carbon • Policy Design Issues • Promoting Wood • Bioenergy • conclusion

26. Bio-energy Strategy (2008) • “convert wood waste and trees that have been killed by the mountain pine beetle into clean, renewable energy, create new opportunities for rural communities, spur new investment and innovation, and help B.C. become energy self-sufficient.” FRST 415

27. Forest Bioenergy - background • Viability depends on relative value of competing uses of forest stands • Depends on • Energy density • Available technology (gathering and processing) • Regulatory framework • Relative prices of energy and competing forest products Sustainable Energy Policy

28. 3 sources of forest bioenergy • Mill residues • Residues left in forest • Standing timber (including plantation)

29. Forests, bioenergy, and carbon • From a greenhouse gas perspective, it makes more sense to use forests to make long-lived wood products • Ben Parfitt – Managing BC’s Forests for a Cooler Planet Sustainable Energy Policy

30. New Themes BC’s forests can potentially contribute to greenhouse gas reductions, but immense complexity and uncertainty make effective and efficient policy design very difficult BC’s vast forest resource is a potentially significant source of energy, but the low energy density and costs of concentrating the resource where it can be processed means that for the foreseeable future it is likely to be a significant, economical source of energy only as a residual product of the forest sector. Sustainable Energy Policy

31. Conclusions • Apparent opportunities, immense challenges • course tools applicable • Emergent forest carbon policy • Limited bioenergy policy • Economics questionable FRST 415

32. Conclusions • Coming paradigm shift, or struggling industry grasping for faint hope? • Depends in part on definition of rules • What makes sense in terms of science? • Beware of underlying interests FRST 415