Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)

1. Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood 734-647-3530 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2010 April 8, 2010

2. Class News • Ctools site: AOSS 480 001 W10 • On Line: 2008 Class • Reference list from course • Rood Blog Data Base

3. Projects • Final presentation discussion; • April 22, 12:00 – 4:00, Place TBD. • After class meetings • 4/6: Near-term solutions • 4/8: Michigan’s response • 4/13: Transportation • 4/15: Near-term solutions

4. Opportunities for civic engagement Outreach to the public Op-eds, letters to the editor, contributions to blogs/web commentary Speak to local groups (Lions clubs, Rotarians, etc.) Outreach to Congress AAAS Mass Media Fellowship http://www.aaas.org/programs/education/MassMedia/index.shtml AMS Summer Policy Colloquium & Leadership Development Program http://www.ametsoc.org/spc AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellowships (sponsored by AAAS, AMS, AGU, GSA, AGI, and others) http://fellowships.aaas.org http://www.ametsoc.org/csf ClimatePolicy.org An American Meteorological Society Project

5. Strategies for engaging Congress Find the right staffers (usually the Legislative Assistant for energy and environment) www.governmentguide.com firstname_lastname@senatorslastname.senate.gov firstname.lastname@mail.house.gov Send a short message asking to talk/meet with them Why you want to talk Why they want to talk to you You’re a constituent You work on an important aspect of the issue You work at an important institution in their district Ways you may increase your effectiveness when meeting with staffers Be clear about what you want the member to do Be relevant (tie what you’re asking to larger issues that affect constituents) Be aware that policy choices go beyond scientific understanding Consider inviting the member (or the LA) to tour your research facility Check with the Legislative Affairs Office for constraints or help

6. Events • Event: Public Forum About Nuclear Energy • Date: Saturday April 10th • Time: 2:00 - 3:00pm, Doors open at 1:30pm • Location: Stamps Auditorium University of Michigan, • School of Music and Dance 1226 Murfin Ave. Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1265

7. Events • Pollack and Rood, Author’s Forum • A World Without Ice: A Conversation with Henry Pollack & Richard Rood • Wednesday, April 14, 2010 • 5:30PM • Library Gallery, room 100, Harlan Hatcher Graduate Library • For more info visit www.lsa.umich.edu/humin

8. Readings on Local Servers • Assigned • Supreme Court: Massachusetts versus EPA • Sigman: Liability and Climate Policy • Of Interest • Massachusetts Petition to the U.S. Supreme Court • US Govt Response to Massachusetts Petition • Foundational Reading • University of Pennsylvania Law Review (2007)

9. From Last Time • Regional aspects of policy • Economics • Branding • Revisit Economics and the Stern Report • Revisit the Uncertainty Fallacy • The reduction of uncertainty leads to policy success • Need for policy accelerators or catalysts • Farber’s paper

10. Climate Science-Policy Relation KNOWLEDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE POLICY UNCERTAINTY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

11. Economics-Policy Relation KNOWLEDGE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS POLICY UNCERTAINTY Economic analysis is not the compelling catalyst to converge the development of policy – at least on the global scale. Different story on the local scale. PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

12. Energy Security-Policy Relation KNOWLEDGE ENERGY SECURITY POLICY UNCERTAINTY PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

13. Energy-Economy-Climate Change ECONOMY ENERGY CLIMATE CHANGE THESE THREE ARE BIG WHAT ARE THEIR ATTRIBUTES? ______________________________ HOW ARE THEY RELATED? ______________________________

14. LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. What is short-term and long-term? Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ... ENERGY SECURITY Election time scales CLIMATE CHANGE ECONOMY 25 years 0 years 50 years 75 years 100 years

15. LOCAL GLOBAL SPATIAL We keep arriving at levels of granularity WEALTH TEMPORAL NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Small scales inform large scales. Large scales inform small scales.

16. Towards an integrated picture ECONOMIC ANALYSIS KNOWLEDGE IMPACTS CLIMATE SCIENCE ENERGY CONSUMPTION POPULATION UNCERTAINTY Fragmented Policy PROMOTES / CONVERGENCE OPPOSES / DIVERGENCE

17. Think for a minute • What are the things that we do that connect us together?

18. Back to: What are the things that connect us together?

19. Things that permeate society • Law permeates society. • There are some significant consistencies in law. • But also there are remarkable differences in law.

20. From Farber: Legal Status • Climate models establish a lower end estimate for global temperature impacts, but the distribution is less clearly bounded on the high side – or in simpler terms, the high-end risk may be considerable. The models are better at predicting temperature patterns than precipitation patterns, and global predictions are considerably firmer than more localized ones. • Economic models are much less advanced, and their conclusions should be used with caution. Unfortunately, economists are not always careful about incorporating uncertainty into their policy recommendations.

21. From Farber: Legal Status • Climate scientists have created a unique institutional system for assessing and improving models, going well beyond the usual system of peer review. Consequently, their conclusions should be entitled to considerable credence by courts and agencies. • Model predictions cannot be taken as gospel. There is considerable residual uncertainty about climate change impacts that cannot be fully quantified. The uncertainties on the whole make climate change a more serious problem rather than providing a source of comfort. The policy process should be designed with this uncertainty in mind. For instance, rather than focusing on a single cost-benefit analysis for proposed regulatory actions, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which oversees federal regulatory policy, might do better to require the development of standardized scenarios for agencies to use.

22. In the past couple of years • The picture of polar bears in the sea motivated a lot of discussion about the Endangered Species Act ... • but, legal approaches have a difficult path, cause and effect, who are the damaged and damaging parties, what laws are relevant ... Polar Bear as Endangered Species

23. So what are the legal pathways? • Public nuisance • Clean Air Act • National Environmental Policy Act • Federal policy of pre-emption • Less stringent federal regulations rather than more stringent state regulations • Like tobacco liability litigation • Like gun liability litigation • Endangered Species Act

24. National Environmental Quality Act (1969) • Purpose • Sec. 2 [42 USC § 4321]. • The purposes of this Act are: To declare a national policy which will encourage productive and enjoyable harmony between man and his environment; to promote efforts which will prevent or eliminate damage to the environment and biosphere and stimulate the health and welfare of man; to enrich the understanding of the ecological systems and natural resources important to the Nation; and to establish a Council on Environmental Quality.

25. What are the obstacles? • Political Question / Judicial Competence • Court being asked, essentially, to make policy • Standing • The ability to show particular, or personal harm. • Causation • Demonstration that a particular, say, power plant or manufacturer has caused the harm

26. An interesting set of papers • The complete issue of University of Pennsylvania Law Review (Vol, 155, 2007) • Intersection of climate science, economics, and law. University of Pennsylvania Law Review (2007)

27. A case that received a lot of attention • Connecticut versus American Electric Power • Public nuisance • Determined that court was being asked to address what was essentially a policy question. • Senator Imhoff a principal in having the case thrown out

28. A case that continues to attract attention • Massachusetts versus US Environmental Protection Agency • Clean Air Act

29. A case that continues to attract attention • Relevant text of Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act” "The Administrator [of EPA] shall by regulation prescribe . . . standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines, which in his judgment cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare." • Section 302(g) of the Clean Air Act defines "air pollutant" as "any air pollution agent or combination of such agents, including any physical . . . substance or matter which is emitted into or otherwise enters the ambient air."  302(h) states that "effects on welfare" include "effects on soils, water, crops, . . . wildlife, weather . . . and climate . . .”

30. California and Clean Air Act • When the Clean Air Act was written California was given the ability to make more stringent standards. • States can choose either the California standard or the less stringent national standard (A motivator for federal policy is often the existence of many state and local policies.)

31. Supreme Court Decision • Supreme Court found in favor of Massachusetts • Had argued that they were threatened by sea level rise. • There was standing. • Had argued that carbon dioxide was a pollutant. • Supreme Court said carbon dioxide is a pollutant based on the definition in the Clean Air Act. • EPA did have the regulatory authority to regulate CO2.

32. Bush EPA Arguments • That to control carbon dioxide from cars was an issue of efficiency, which was the sole domain of the Department of Transportation. • That for the EPA to act would be a piecemeal approach to the problem, against the President’s wishes. • That taking action on cars would have no real effect because of other sources of CO2, including China. • That there was a political history that precluded EPA from acting.

33. Since then • California Attorney General Petition to EPA • “Global warming threatens California's Sierra mountain snow pack, which provides the state with one-third of its drinking water. California also has approximately 1,000 miles of coastline and levees that are threatened by rising sea levels.”

34. Since then • 2008: EPA has not, formally, taken action, and even their own lawyers have been quoted in the press as saying that EPA is not on solid legal grounds for doing nothing. • A political decision. • 2009: EPA Pressing using Clean Air Act to regulate CO2

35. More News • 2009: 2 Days before Copenhagen • EPA Decides to Enforce • How does U.S. Stake in Auto Industry impact this?

36. Even newer news • 2010: Bipartisan Move to Block EPA Regulating CO2 • Text of Joint Resolution

37. Where does litigation sit in the climate problem? • Motivator for the development of policy. • Law works on short-term and local scales. • Does not, often, extend to long-term and global scales. • Deliberative, case-by-case

38. Law vs Policy • Law, at least with U.S. EPA, leads to the idea of regulation. • In general, “people” prefer policy to regulation business risk? • Currently in U.S. Obama is pushing EPA to exercise its ability to regulate CO2 as a pollutant. • Bush administration did not require EPA to do this • Holdren, in lecture on March 23, talked about valuation of carbon, tax, fee, market, or regulation. (Holdren at UMich)

39. What is the role of law? • Is it a motivator of policy? • Is it an end to its self?

40. Energy-Economy-Climate Change • Because of the global reach of Energy, Economy, and Global Warming, solutions need to be woven into the fabric of our behavior. • Solutions need to be able to evolve from the near-term to the long-term. • Solutions need to address both local and global attributes of the problem. • Solutions are impacted by wealth • There is no one solution; we need a portfolio of solution paths.

41. Think for a minute • Global warming is a global issue that follows, primarily, from the consumption of fossil fuel energy, which is largely decided at the level of the individual. • Hence, solutions must infiltrate all of society and influence our behavior. • Markets are at the top of list

42. Market-based solutions • A leading policy mechanism is an environmental market which places valuation on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its impact on natural resources that are sensitive to the climate. • Valuation (currency) becomes the common unit of transference, how we “talk” to each other.

43. What about the carbon market • Basics of a market • This is once again a place where the idea that there is a system “in balance.” And that small changes from the balance are important. In the presence of small changes, perhaps the system is self regulating.

44. Courtesy Justin Felt, Pointcarbon Cap and Trade Mechanism Two Companies: Note numbers on x axis. 100 here and here

45. Courtesy Justin Felt, Pointcarbon Cap and Trade Mechanism Two Companies: 100 is the amount of emissions “allowed”

46. Courtesy Justin Felt, Pointcarbon Cap and Trade Mechanism Two Companies: Plant B more efficient than Plant A

47. Courtesy Justin Felt, Pointcarbon Cap and Trade Mechanism Two Companies: This efficiency is available for trade to Plant A to off set this

48. Courtesy Justin Felt, Pointcarbon Cap and Trade Mechanism

49. Basics of the Market • The expense of exceeding the cap will motivate reduction of pollution. • How can reduction be achieved? • Companies with efficient methods will develop a something they can trade. • What is the cost of to compare with?

50. Carbon Markets • California Climate Change • Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative • EU ETS (Carbon Market) • Chicago Climate Exchange • Pointcarbon • World Bank State of the Carbon Market