1. Microprocessors 2004 Nick Tredennick, Editor Gilder Technology Report bozo@computer.org Nick Tredennick

2. Overview • Major trends affecting the microprocessor market • Value PC • Value transistor • Emerging economies • Microprocessors • Computer microprocessors • Embedded microprocessors • Configurable microprocessors • PLD microprocessors Nick Tredennick

3. The PC Is Good Enough Nick Tredennick

4. Transistors Are Good Enough Nick Tredennick

5. Foundries: Adoption Rate By Process Modeled after: TSMChttp://www.tsmc.com/english/technology/t0203.htm Nick Tredennick

6. Semiconductor Trends • Value PCs outsell leading-edge PCs • Mobile applications emerge • Design emphasis shifts from cost performance to cost-performance-per-watt • Value transistors outsell leading-edge transistors • Transistor performance overshoots many applications • Increasing demand in emerging economies • Foundry strength grows Nick Tredennick

7. Microprocessors • x86 AMD, Intel, Transmeta, Via • ARC ARC • ARM ARM • MicroBlaze Xilinx • MIPS MIPS • Nios Altera • PowerPC IBM, Freescale • SPARC Sun • Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica • Old stuff Everyone Nick Tredennick

8. Microprocessor Applications • Supercomputers • Workstations and servers • PCs • Embedded systems • Automobiles • Cameras • Cell phones • Game players • MP3 players • Set-top boxes Nick Tredennick

9. Computer Markets Nick Tredennick

10. Microprocessor Markets Nick Tredennick

11. Computer Microprocessors • x86 • AMD • Intel • Transmeta • Via • Proprietary • IBM • Freescale • Sun Nick Tredennick

12. Embedded Microprocessors • Microprocessor advantages • Flexibility • High-volume production • Usable by programmers • Microprocessor limitations • Too slow • Too much power Nick Tredennick

13. Embedded Microprocessors • x86 AMD, Transmeta, Via • ARM ARM • PowerPC IBM, Freescale • Old stuff Everyone • Triscend (Xilinx) Nick Tredennick

14. For the ultimate in flexibility, programmers map the application onto a general-purpose microprocessor. For the ultimate in performance, logic designers map the application into a custom circuit. Microprocessor ASIC Microprocessors and ASICs Programmers Application Logic designers Nick Tredennick

15. ASICs & Microprocessors Nick Tredennick

16. ASICs & Microprocessors Nick Tredennick

17. ASICs & Microprocessors Nick Tredennick

18. Configurable Microprocessors • ARC ARC • Ascenium Ascenium • MIPS MIPS • Nios Altera • Tensilica Stretch, Tensilica Nick Tredennick

19. Programmers Logic designers Dynamically reconfigurable microprocessor Run-time reconfigurable microprocessor Ascenium Microprocessor Stretch Design-time configurable microprocessor ARC MIPS Tensilica ASIC FPGA Microprocessor Evolution Nick Tredennick

20. PLD Microprocessors • Altera • Nios (soft) • Xilinx • MicroBlaze (soft) • PicoBlaze (soft) • PowerPC (hard) Nick Tredennick

21. Situation WhatValueWho • FPGAs $3B logic designers • ASICs $30B logic designers • Microprocessors $40B programmers FPGAs and microprocessors are usurping a declining ASIC market. Microprocessors (and their derivatives) will win. Nick Tredennick

22. Recommendation • Altera and Xilinx should become soft-core microcontroller companies (instead of PLD companies) • Sell the same chips, but to a larger, programming-oriented customer base • Sell custom soft-core microcontrollers • Sell peripheral IP “Can’t find the perfect microcontroller? Make one—today.” Nick Tredennick

23. Why? • Today’s customers are logic designers; tomorrow’s customers will be programmers • Programming is more cost effective than logic design because it is a higher level of abstraction • There are ten times as many customers (more programmers than logic designers) Nick Tredennick

24. The Value PC • PCs are good enough • Value PC shifts design emphasis to mobile systems • SRAM, DRAM, and flash are unsuitable for mobile systems • A new non-volatile memory device will emerge • The first programmable logic company to adopt CMOS-compatible, non-volatile memory could gain a decisive advantage. Nick Tredennick

25. The Value Transistor • Today’s transistors are good enough for most applications • The value transistor favors foundries over integrated device manufacturers • Fabs are good enough • 3D wafer stacking will emerge • The first programmable logic company to adopt wafer stacking could gain a decisive advantage. Nick Tredennick

26. Microprocessor-like • DSPs • Network processors • Specialty processors Nick Tredennick

27. Consequences • Rise of mobile applications • New non-volatile memories • Rise of foundries • Rise of soft (IP) cores • Horizontal fragmentation of integrated device manufacturers • Rise of non-volatile FPGAs • Rise of reconfigurable systems • Growing market for embedded microprocessors • Tethered: traditional role • Mobile: supervisory role Nick Tredennick