The U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Water Cycle

1. The U.S. Climate Change Science Programandthe Water Cycle Peter Schultz U.S. Climate Change Science Program Office, Director

2. Vision: A nation and the global community empowered with the science-based knowledge to manage the risks and opportunities of change in the climate and related environmental systems. Mission: Facilitate the creation and application of knowledge of the Earth’s global environment through research, observations, decision support, and communication. Responsibility: Coordination and integration of scientific research on global variability and change sponsored by 13 participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Government.

4. CCSP Interagency Committee and SGCR Principals • William Brennan, Chair, DOC/NOAA • Jack Kaye, Vice Chair, NASA • Patricia Gruber, DoD • Allen Dearry, HHS/NIEH • Jerry Elwood, DOE • Mary Glackin, DOC/NOAA • William Hohenstein, USDA • Linda Lawson, DoT • Tom Armstrong, USGS • Jarvis Moyers, NSF • Patrick Neale, SI • Joel Scheraga, EPA • Jacqueline Schafer, USAID • Harlan Watson, DoS Executive Office & Other Liaisons Steven Eule, DOE, CCTP Director Gene Whitney, OSTP David Banks, CEQ Stuart Levenbach, OMB Howard Frumkin, HHS/CDC Katherine Gebbie, DOC/NIST Margaret McCalla, DOC/NOAA/OFCM

5. 5 Climate Science Goals Improve Knowledge of Climate and Environment Improve Quantification of Forces Driving Changes to Climate Reduce Uncertainty in Projections of Future Climate Changes Understand Sensitivity and Adaptability of Natural and Manmade Ecosystems Explore Uses and Limits of Managing Risks and Opportunities CCSP Strategic Plan www.climatescience.gov

6. Modeling International Decision Support Observations & Data Mgmt. Climate Variability & Change Water Cycle Basic Understanding Atm. Comp. Land Use / Cover Change Forcing Carbon Cycle Modeling Human Contribut. & Responses Impacts Ecosystems Responses Implementation Strategy Goals Research Elements Cross-Cutting Elements

7. Water Cycle Research Element • 5.1: Mechanisms, processes, trends, attribution • 5.2: Feedbacks between water cycle and other parts of the climate system (e.g., carbon cycle, energy) • 5.3: Seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long-term projections of water cycle • 5.4: Consequences for society and ecosystems • 5.5: Informing decision processes

8. Water Cycle Research Element Question 5.1:What are the mechanisms and processes responsible for the maintenance and variability of the water cycle; are the characteristics of the cycle changing and, if so, to what extent are human activities responsible for those changes?

9. Water Cycle Research Element Question 5.1:What are the mechanisms and processes responsible for the maintenance and variability of the water cycle; are the characteristics of the cycle changing and, if so, to what extent are human activities responsible for those changes? Snow Water Change (% change; 1950-1997 for April 1) Changing Runoff Peak (1948-2000) Stewart et al, 2004 Mote et al, 2005

10. Water Cycle Research Element • Question 5.2: How do feedback processes control the interactions between the global water cycle and other parts of the climate system (e.g., carbon cycle, energy), and how are these feedbacks changing over time? degrees C cm/month

11. Water Cycle Research Element • Question 5.3:What are the key uncertainties in seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long-term projections of water cycle variables, and what improvements are needed in global and regional models to reduce these uncertainties?

12. Water Cycle Research Element • Question 5.3:What are the key uncertainties in seasonal-to-interannual predictions and long-term projections of water cycle variables, and what improvements are needed in global and regional models to reduce these uncertainties? Projected runoff change for mid 21st century (%) (Milley et al, 2005)

13. Water Cycle Research Element • Question 5.4:What are the consequences over a range of space and time scales of water cycle variability and change for human societies and ecosystems, and how do they interact with the Earth system to affect sediment transport and nutrient and biogeochemical cycles?

14. Water Cycle Research Element • Question 5.5: How can global water cycle information be used to inform decision processes in the context of changing water resource conditions and policies?

15. Synthesis and Assessment Products

16. Synthesis & Assessment Products • 1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere: Steps for understanding and reconciling differences (NOAA – completed) • 1.2 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes (USGS) • 1.3 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change (NOAA) • 2.1 Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations and review of integrated scenario development and application (DOE – completed) • 2.2 North American carbon budget & implications for the global carbon cycle (NOAA –completed) • 2.3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate (NASA) • 2.4 Trends in emissions of ODSs, ozone layer recovery, and implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change. (NOAA) • 3.1 Climate models: An assessment of strengths and limitations for user applications (DOE) • 3.2 Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through the Climate Change Technology Program (NOAA) • 3.3 Climate extremes: Analysis of the observed changes and variations and prospects for the future (NOAA) • 3.4 Risks of abrupt changes in global climate (USGS)

17. S&A Products (cont.) • 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise (EPA) • 4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources (USGS) • 4.3 Analyses of the effects of global change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources (USDA) • 4.4 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources (EPA) • 4.5 Effects of climate change on energy production and use (DOE – completed) • 4.6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems (EPA) • 4.7 Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts, and response options (DOT) • 5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions (NASA) • 5.2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making (NOAA) • 5.3 Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to inter-annual forecasts and observational data --- focus on water resource management (NOAA)

18. SAP 4.3 – Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land, and Water Resources DRAFT Conclusions in public review version (subject to change): • U.S. has become wetter in recent decades (precip., low-medium river runoff, soil moisture) • Drought severity and duration declined over most of U.S. during 20th century; exceptions in west and southwest • Evaporation appears to have increased over most of U.S. in 2nd half of 20th century • Snowpack in mountainous western U.S. generally declined in 2nd half of 20th century, earlier spring melt and runoff in those regions; continuation projected • Likely that a combination of large temp. increases and modest precip. increases in 21st century will lead to widespread declines in runoff • Warmer summer temp. in western U.S. led to longer growing seasons, increased summer drought stress, and fire hazard • Stream temperature increases have begun to be detected across much of U.S. • U.S. consumptive water use per capita has declined over last 2 decades; total water use has also declined slightly; trends likely to continue

19. CCSP Interagency Implementation Priorities Related to the Water Cycle FY 07-08: Integration of Water Cycle Observations, Research, and Modeling • beginning the evolution of an observing system aimed at measuring key elements required to close the terrestrial water cycle budget on a regional scale- • e.g., Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) examined cloud formation and feedback process as well as associated land surface/hydrological processes FY07-08: Coping with Drought through Research and Regional Partnerships • focus on analyzing the social and economic impacts of drought and the capacity for information about near-term climate variability and longer-term climate trends to aid decision makers coping with drought • e.g., National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) was/is a key component

20. CCSP Interagency Implementation Priorities Related to the Water Cycle FY09: Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and Application Capability • Calibration and bias correction of hydrologic output from climate models • Development of regional climate-driven hydrologic projections • Incorporation of hydrologic projections into decision support tools and systems • NOAA (Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments; Sectoral Applications Research Program; Advanced Hydrological Prediction Service; Climate Prediction Program for the Americas) • DOE (Atmospheric Radiation Measurements; Climate Modeling) • NSF (Hydrological Information System Portal; Research on Downscaling Issues, Observatory Planning, Synthesis Activities; Decision Making Under Uncertainty) • NASA (GIOVANNI and Hydrological Portals with analytical capabilities; NEWS/HEX & Hydrological Portals with the Global Change Master Directory; Terra/Aqua/TRMM/GRACE/ Cloudsat/Calypso; Applications Program; NASA Modeling and Analysis Program) • USGS (Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets Program; PCS) • USDA (Agricultural Research Service; Natural Resources Conservation Service; Cooperative State Research, Education and Extension Service; Forest Service) • Bureau of Reclamation • EPA (Global Change Research Program – Water Quality and Aquatic Ecosystems research and assessments of implications of climate change; evaluation of adaptation options; development of decision support tools)

21. CCSP Strategic Planning- Developing underpinnings of a new strategic plan- “Building block” approach in ’08- Listening to science & stakeholder communitiesVital to consider a number of changes in the operating environment, including - growing public interest / concern - new Administration - draft legislation (both science and public policy) - agency / dept / interagency planning - ongoing environmental changes - etc.

22. Thanks!

23. CCSP FY09 Interagency Implementation Priorities • Ecological Forecasting • Enhanced Carbon Cycle Research on High Latitude Systems • Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and Application Capability • Assessing Abrupt Changes in a Warming Climate • Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability • Quantification of Climate Forcing and Feedbacks by Aerosols, Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, Water Vapor, and Clouds