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Fertility Decline over the Past 35 years: What Have We Learned?

Fertility Decline over the Past 35 years: What Have We Learned?. Shareen Joshi Georgetown University Rachel Nugent Center for Global Development April, 2010. Since 1970, fertility rates have fallen everywhere.

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Fertility Decline over the Past 35 years: What Have We Learned?

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  1. Fertility Decline over the Past 35 years: What Have We Learned? Shareen Joshi Georgetown University Rachel Nugent Center for Global Development April, 2010

  2. Since 1970, fertility rates have fallen everywhere Note: Analysis is based on a sample of 188 countries for whom fertility data is available in 1970 and 2005. We also exclude from our sample, all those countries for whom data on TFRs is missing in 1970. Source: World Development Indicators Online, 2009.

  3. There are two major groups of countries… Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

  4. One group has experienced a dramatic fall in fertility Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

  5. The other has had much less fertility decline Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

  6. Most of these are in Sub-Saharan Africa Source: World Development Indicators, 2009

  7. Drivers of fertility decline in HL countries • Increases in income • Expansion of education • (particularly for women) • Decreases in infant and • child mortality • Diffusion of information • Urbanization • Increased use of • modern • contraceptives • Increases in age at • marriage There is no “perfect” recipe, no critical threshold for any of these variables

  8. Lets look at the income variable The relationship between fertility and income has remained negative for a long time

  9. But in 1970, HH countries were similar to HL countries in terms of both fertility and income per-capita…

  10. …they diverged significantly in the years that followed

  11. An interesting comparison from the most recent data • There are many examples of HL countries that achieved fertility decline under lower per-capita incomes than many of today’s HH countries

  12. Another variable: Education

  13. The variation is even more significant for female education

  14. Some interesting comparisons • All countries with less than 90% gross enrolment rates tend to be HL countries • But there is still lots of variation at higher gross enrolment rates: • Many countries achieved fertility decline with low levels of education • Bangladesh • Vietnam

  15. What is the role of policy? Economic Policies Health + Education Policy • Population Policy • Direct policies • Indirect policies

  16. Population policies have been shaped by both domestic and international trends

  17. International population policy has shown several shifts 1950—1970 1970—1990 1990—Now For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming

  18. Domestic population policies vary significantly • Lessons on what works: • Strong national • leadership • An evidence-based • approach • A focus on the poorest • and most marginalized For more information, see Joshi and Dasgupta (2010), Forthcoming

  19. Conclusion: No perfect recipe but lots of options available to policy-makers! Economic Policies Health + Education Policy • Population Policy • Direct policies • Indirect policies

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