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Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program

The Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) presents a comprehensive study program and scenario analysis to assess energy reliability and impacts in the electric power system. This program includes scoping, modeling, data analysis, and reporting to address key questions and develop a reliable system.

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Western Electricity Coordinating Council Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program

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  1. WECC 2019 Scenarios – Scoping Michael Bailey, PE System Adequacy Planning - WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  2. Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program Quantum Planning Group Action Item (Sep 28, 2018) 2038 Reliability Assessment Study Approach Key Questions Study Horizons Reliability Impacts Study Approach Development Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  3. Study Program Drivers Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  4. 2019 RAC Study Program(https://www.wecc.biz/RAC/Pages/StS.aspx#DiscussionItems) • Three Tracks: • Phase 1 • Scenarios • Phase 2 Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  5. 2019 RAC Study Program(https://www.wecc.biz/RAC/Pages/StS.aspx#DiscussionItems) • Three Tracks: • Phase 1 • Scenarios • Phase 2 Scenarios & 2019 RAC Study Program Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  6. Study Program Baseline Schedule 1 day Study Program Approval Jan 28 15 days Create Project Teams Jan 28 - Feb 15 10 days Define Assessment Scope Feb 4 - Feb 15 50 days Determine Modeling Approach Feb 11 - Apr 19 40 days Identify Data Needs Feb 25 - Apr 19 25 days Conduct Assessments Apr 22 - May 24 30 days Create Report May 27 - Jul 5 40 days Prepare Final Report Jul 8 - Aug 30 2019 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  7. Scenario Studies Schedule SC2 & EWCC Scoping Create Project Teams 1 day SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping 15 days SC2 & EWCC Studies 10 days SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies 50 days Review Preliminary Results 40 days Final Study Runs 25 days 30 days Prepare Draft Report Final Review 40 days Final Report 2019 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  8. Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices 2019 Scenario Matrix Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  9. Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  10. Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  11. Scenario Studies Schedule SC2 & EWCC Scoping Create Project Teams 1 day SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping 15 days SC2 & EWCC Studies 10 days SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies 50 days Review Preliminary Results 40 days Final Study Runs 25 days 30 days Prepare Draft Report Final Review 40 days Final Report 2019 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  12. Scoping Trends & Early Indicators Perform Studies Analyze Results Review Results Publish Results Scenario Development Tasks 2019 (To Do) 2018 (Completed) • Survey • Focus Question • Drivers • Matrix • Narratives • Create/Submit RA Proposals Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  13. Define Modeling Approach • Tools • Models • Methods • Data & Metrics • Partnerships • Develop SOWs • Develop Workplans Scoping Scenario Studies • Create Project Teams • Establish Linkages to WECC Priorities and Reliability Assurance • Define Study Horizons • Define Reporting Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  14. SDS Next Steps Keeping the Momentum Going Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  15. SDS Discussion Items(www.wecc.biz/RAC/Pages/SDS.aspx#DiscussionItems) 2038 Reliability Assessment Study Approach 2019 Scenario Reliability Assessment Proposals Scenario Planning Website(www.wecc.biz/SystemAdequacyPlanning/Pages/Scenario-Planning.aspx) SDS Discussion Items Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  16. Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  17. Scenario 2 Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  18. 2.1 As distributed resources, both in front of and behind the meter become significant and integrated load serving resources: What infrastructure changes and upgrades in both the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations? Where are these changes and upgrades needed; what would they cost, who would pay for them, and how would their costs be allocated among customers? What unique changes would be needed to integrate behind-the-meter (BTM) residential and small business self-generation? What timeline would the changes and upgrades play out over, and how would states and provinces differ in their timing? Scenario 2 – Questions (Part 1) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  19. 2.1 As distributed resources, both in front of and behind the meter become significant and integrated load serving resources: What infrastructure changes and upgrades in both the BPS and distribution systems might be needed for system integration, co-optimization, and coordinated operations? Where are these changes and upgrades needed; what would they cost, who would pay for them, and how would their costs be allocated among customers? What unique changes would be needed to integrate behind-the-meter (BTM) residential and small business self-generation? What timeline would the changes and upgrades play out over, and how would states and provinces differ in their timing? Scenario 2 – Questions (Part 2) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  20. Scenario 1: Open Market, Restricted Choices Scenario-Based Assessments Scenario 5: Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario 2: Open Market, High Choice Scenario 4: High Mandates, High Choice Scenario 3: High Mandates, Restricted Choices Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  21. Energy-Water-Climate Change Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  22. 5.1 What potential risks to the reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection would result through changes to the climate, and how would those changes impact the electrical reliability of the Western Interconnection? How might the generation resource portfolio change due to climate change related events? How might the utilization of the bulk electric transmission system change due to climate change related events? What operational challenges may arise in both the BPS due to climate change-related events? What impacts will climate change have on the operating and maintenance costs of the bulk transmission system? Scenario 5 – Questions (Part 1) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  23. 5.2 What potential geographic shifts in electricity demand due to changing demographics driven by reactions to increased global warming and extreme weather events might occur in the region? How might load growth patterns and characteristics change due to climate change related events? Scenario 5 – Questions (Part 2) Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  24. Tools & Paradigms Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  25. Near Term (5 Year) • Power System Analysis (PSA) • Production Cost (PCM) • Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) • Production Cost • Power System Analysis • Capital Expansion (CapEx) • Long Term (10 to 20 Year) • Capital Expansion • Production Cost • Power System Analysis Horizons & Tools • Near Term (5 Year) • Historical Trends • Current Trends • Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) • Current Trends • Expected Futures • Long Term (10 to 20 Year) • Expected Futures • Future Drivers • Plausible Futures Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  26. Near Term (5 Year) • Power System Analysis (PSA) • Production Cost (PSM) • Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) • Production Cost • Power System Analysis • Capital Expansion (CapEx) • Long Term (10 to 20 Year) • Capital Expansion • Production Cost • Power System Analysis Horizons & Tools & Focus • Near Term (5 Year) • Historical Trends • Current Trends • Mid Term (5 to 10 Year) • Current Trends • Expected Futures • Long Term (10 to 20 Year) • Expected Futures • Future Drivers • Plausible Futures Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  27. Scenario Narratives Reliability Questions Results Metrics Tools, Models, Methods, Partnerships Data Metrics Stakeholder Engagement Start With the End in Mind Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  28. Specific (simple, sensible, significant). Measurable (meaningful, motivating). Achievable (agreed, attainable). Relevant (reasonable, realistic and resourced, results-based). Time bound (time-based, time limited, time/cost limited, timely, time-sensitive). Smart Results Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  29. Specific (portfolio mix). Measurable (annual MWh, installed MW). Achievable (viable, PSA/PCM/CapEx). Relevant (answers a reliability question). Time bound (5, 10, 20 year horizons). Smart Results Metrics Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  30. Scoping Process Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  31. Scenario Studies Schedule SC2 & EWCC Scoping Create Project Teams 1 day SC1, SC3, SC4 Scoping 15 days SC2 & EWCC Studies 10 days SC1, SC3, SC4 Studies 50 days Review Preliminary Results 40 days Final Study Runs 25 days 30 days Prepare Draft Report Final Review 40 days Final Report 2019 2019 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Today Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  32. Create project teams Develop workplans aligned with study schedule Scope study approaches Engage with other committees Monitor / review / assist SDS Next Steps Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  33. Michael Bailey, PE Senior Staff Engineer WECC – System Adequacy mbailey@wecc.biz Questions? Western Electricity Coordinating Council

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