Presentation Outline

1. Building Resilience in the Horn of Africa: A DG ECHO Perspective Think Space: Resilience in the Horn of Africa, Nairobi, 23th January 2013

2. Presentation Outline • Definition and conceptual framework • Resilience of whom to what? • A case study from the arid lands • The need to do business differently: the way forward

3. Definition and conceptual framework • “Resilience is the ability of an individual, a household, a community, a country or a region to withstand, adapt and to quickly recover from stresses and shocks” (EU Communication on Resilience) • In the HoA, mainly concerned with building resilience to drought –in the context of increased vulnerability due to chronic structural causes - but also includes other shocks such as floods and natural resource based conflict (more on this later…)

4. Definition and conceptual framework • Multi-sectoral approach aimed to reduce risks (mainstream DRR) and improving rapid coping and adaptation at all levels; • Aligning humanitarian action with longer term development processes: expansion/ contraction rather than start/ stop; • Implies an in-depth understanding of the underlying causes of vulnerability (JHDF) and a long-term approach to build capacity to better manage future uncertainty and change, while retaining early response capacity; • Requires a focused effort to identify resilience of whom to what

6. Resilience of Whom to What? • Of Whom? • Pastoralists and ex-pastoralists in the arid lands – Somalia, N Kenya, S and E Ethiopia, Djibouti; • Agro-pastoralists in the ASAL zones; • Marginal agriculturalists

7. Resilience of Whom to What? To What? • Region with recurrent droughts with increased impact due to: • Decades of marginalisation and lack of development investment • Rapid population growth • Erosion of traditional livelihoods and huge increase in destitute asset-depleted people • Chronic food and nutrition insecurity and poverty • Conflict – especially Somalia, but common throughout the region. • Flood prone areas: eastern Kenya and S/C Somalia

8. Case Study from the arid lands Two Big factors are changing how people live in the arid lands: • Demographic change: a doubling of population every 20-25 years • Commercialisation of pastoralism with increased demand locally and the middle East • Reduced per-capita livestock holdings • Increased livestock holdings of the wealthy • Net transfer of livestock from poor to wealthy • Massive increase in ex-pastoralists and increasing sedentarisation of ‘diversified pastoralists’

10. Source: Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey, 2011 • Ex-Pastoralists: • Few or no livestock • Sedentarised • Dependant on aid: • food assistance and • social protection • >50% of population • Future prospects??? • Diversified Pastoralists: • Few small ruminants • Other sources of income • Sedentarised • Highly vulnerable • about 25% of population • Pastoralists: • Traditional or commercialised • Mobile/ absent • Cashing in on increased meat demand • Highly drought resilient. • About 25% of popn.

11. Future = commercialization and trade, domestic + export = continued use of mobile livestock production systems Future = “traditional” pastoralism and mobility Future = exits and protracted destitution for some = alternative livelihoods for others Future = added value on livestock products = diversification

12. “Traditional” pastoralists • Conflict –causing immobility • Population growth • Drought • Inappropriate aid Poor pastoralists “Moving Out” Example: Turkana, Kenya Only 51% of HH own livestock

13. Case Study from the arid lands Volume and price of shoats exported from Bossasso and Berbera

15. Case Study from the arid lands

16. Business as Usual… • Development funds invest in the “Growth Model”: • High potential areas (agricultural productivity) • In the “pastoral area”: livestock health, marketing and fodder production: effectively the wealthier pastoralists. • Humanitarian funds channeled to the most vulnerable: “Equity” • ASAL and marginal farming areas; • High and persistent levels of food and nutrition insecurity: the very poor and poor. • Different communities are being targeted • Trickle down from rich to poor does not work

17. Doing things differently… Principles • Action research to understand the dynamics/ changes and opportunities to build resilient livelihoods. • To re-balance development funding such that both the most vulnerable and the growth model approach are included, • And to identify key geographical areas of focus and the most vulnerable communities. • Critical to align humanitarian and development funding instruments to address the structural and transient needs of the most vulnerable.

18. Doing things differently… Process/ state of play • We don't have a good understanding of the dynamics in the arid lands – we need: • Joint situation and risk analysis: livelihood profiling, wealth ranking, threat and vulnerability analysis; • We have no concrete strategy – there are government frameworks, but they are too broad: • We need Joint Strategy Development; • SHARE did Joint Programming at HQ: • We need to have joint programming at the national level, including all stakeholders; • Common Log frame/ results framework; • Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; • Very weak coordination between humanitarian cluster system and development coordination mechanisms, or between donors • We need enhanced coordination of all actors.