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Navigating Forecasting Challenges: A Study on Atmospheric Shadowing

Delve into the complexities of atmospheric shadowing with Ross Lieb-Lappen and Chris Danforth as they explore uncertainty, chaos, and model error affecting system forecasts. Learn about improving forecast accuracy and ensemble forecasting using the Lorenz ‘96 Model and inflation techniques. This research sheds light on controlling forecast errors and defining new ensemble members.

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Navigating Forecasting Challenges: A Study on Atmospheric Shadowing

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Presentation Transcript

  1. SHADOWING IN THE ATMOSPHERE Ross Lieb-Lappen Chris Danforth

  2. Forecasting Challenges • Uncertainty in the initial state • Chaos: sensitive dependence • on initial conditions • Model error

  3. Trajectory of the System Truth

  4. Forecast of the System Truth

  5. Improving the Forecast

  6. Our Model Image: Nick Allgaier

  7. Forecasting Methodology • Ensemble forecasting • Lorenz ‘96 Model • Define new ensemble members • Inflation of forecast ellipsoid external forcing advection dissipation

  8. Controlled Inflation • Only in contracting directions • Within climatological span • of particular variable • Maintain appropriate ratio • with neighboring values

  9. Model Success

  10. Acknowledgments Advisor: Chris Danforth Nick Allgaier Kameron Harris

  11. Singular Value Decomposition Definition of new ensemble members

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