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Probabilistic Forecasts - Baseline Products for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)

Probabilistic Forecasts - Baseline Products for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS). Dave Reed HIC – LMRFC 2006 NWA Annual Meeting October 18, 2006. Today’s Talk. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services Probabilistic Products from Hydrologic Ensembles Baseline Products

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Probabilistic Forecasts - Baseline Products for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS)

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  1. Probabilistic Forecasts - Baseline Products for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) Dave Reed HIC – LMRFC 2006 NWA Annual Meeting October 18, 2006

  2. Today’s Talk • Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services • Probabilistic Products from Hydrologic Ensembles • Baseline Products • Where to get products AHPS National Status Map

  3. AHPS • Improved Science • Better Hydrology • Distributed Modeling • Utilize new and emerging technology • Flood Inundation Mapping • Probabilistic Forecasts up to 1 year in future The Ohio River at Mounds, IL, Mar. 29, 1927 - river stage at Cairo, Illinois., 52.8 feet From: "The Floods of 1927 in the Mississippi Basin", Frankenfeld, H.C., 1927 Monthly Weather Review Supplement No. 29

  4. Probabilistic Products • Ensemble Streamflow Prediction System (ESP) • Hydrologic Ensembles similar in function to meteorological ensembles • Statistical Analysis done on ensembles Hannibal, MO – April, 1973

  5. NCEP Ensemble Forecast

  6. NCEP Ensemble Forecast

  7. Hurricane Models – A Set of Ensembles

  8. ESP Ensembles

  9. ESP Ensembles • Generates a series of ensembles based on current soil moisture conditions • Ensembles are hydrologic model runs using archived rainfall for 90-day period (8/31-11/29) for each year 1952-1997 • Statistical analysis can be performed on ensemble members

  10. Example of Ensemble Statistics – Entire Run Period

  11. Example of Ensemble Statistics – Selected Week Period

  12. Potential Products • Maximum, minimum, and mean • Statistics for specified time periods - day, week, month • Statistics for the entire period to compare to “normal” • Extremely flexible – user specified

  13. AHPS Baseline Products Weekly Statistics • Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Members for each Week • Weekly Max Stage • Weekly Max Flow • Flow Volume • Guidance on weekly • Likelihood of flooding • Minimum flows • Water supply volumes

  14. AHPS Baseline Products Weekly Statistics

  15. AHPS Baseline Products Entire Period Statistics • Guidance on statistics during the entire run period • Maximum Stage • Maximum Flow • Guidance on weekly • Possibility of flooding • Minimum flows/stages • Comparison to “normal”

  16. AHPS Baseline Products Entire Period Statistics

  17. AHPS Baseline Products Summary • Weekly Products • Weekly Max Stage • Weekly Max Flow • Weekly Flow Volume • Full Run Period Products • Maximum stage • Maximum Flow

  18. Where to get the Info http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ahps/

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