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UK GDP

Lessons from Economic Crisis Devon in Recession Ben Neild Assistant Director, SLIM 29 th November 2010.

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UK GDP

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  1. Lessons from Economic CrisisDevon in RecessionBen NeildAssistant Director, SLIM29th November 2010

  2. Dec 2007 Stock market sees biggest fall since 2001Qtr 1 2008 Mortgage products (e.g. 110% offers) disappear UK Interest rate cut by 0.25% to 5.0% Economy still growing (though we didn’t know that at time)Qtr 2 2008 RBS tries to raise £12bn & fails as share price falls. House prices fall, Persimmon Builders cut staff.Qtr 3 2008 HBOS collapses, Lehman goes Bankrupt, Federal Reserve finds 85bn to rescue AIG, house prices collapse, liquidity vanishes etc. Confidence vanishes. Things that aren’t essential stop. Credit dependent companies fold. ‘Recession’ or ‘Crash’Timing matters

  3. UK GDP Source: ONS

  4. Comparisons between recessions Worse than the ‘Great Depression’ Source: NIESR

  5. GDP in the economic crisis International Comparisons Source: OECD

  6. Public Spending Total National Debt, % GDP Annual Government borrowing, % GDP Source: OECD

  7. Business Confidence Purchasing Managers Index Q? How would you describe your confidence in the economic prospects facing your organisation over the next 12 months, compared to the previous months? -100 = 100% feel ‘much less’ confident. -50% could be achieved if 100% felt ‘slightly less confident’ etc. Source: ICAEW

  8. Redundancies UK – LFS Redundancies per 1,000 people Devon – Quarterly notified to JC+ Source: LFS

  9. Employment Rates Source: LFS

  10. Unemployment in the economic crisis 2008 - 2009 Source: LFS / OECD

  11. LFS & Claimant CountUnemployment, SW % Working age population in Employment Source: LFS

  12. Part-time Working % Working age population Men Women Source: OECD

  13. Youth / Adult Unemployment 4 Devon ESBs, Oct 2007 – Oct 2008, Claimant Count Source: JC+

  14. % GDP Spent on Public Employment Services, 2008 Source: OECD

  15. % GDP Spent on other ‘Active Measures’, 2008 Source: OECD

  16. Unemployment benefits % of previous earnings, single person without children, 2007 Source:

  17. Total cost of ‘Passive Measures’ % of GDP, 2008 Source: LFS

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