Beyond Growth Beyond Borders: A Panacea

1. Beyond Growth Beyond Borders: A Panacea Joyashree Roy Professor of Economics and Coordinator Global Change Programme Jadavpur University Kolkata, India May 28, 2010 @WIOD Conference, Vienna GCP-JU

2. What ails climate negotiation? • Equity beyond Efficiency • Limited/Uncoordinated Information • Scientists, engineers, economists coordinating at peripheral level • National interest over rides global sustainability issue GCP-JU

3. Current status • Activity - Emission mapping • Production approach (direct emission) Emission=Commodity Production x GHG Intensity • World is divided on the issue of burden sharing • Denial and short coming of production approach • In favour of Consumption approach • Direct and Indirect emission • Burden sharing, leakage: consumption and production approach GCP-JU

4. Production approach (GHG inventory method: UNFCCC) (Mitigation at production process level) Source: IPCC 2007 GCP-JU

5. Need for more informationBeyond Growth, Beyond Borders GCP-JU

6. Emission from trade sector Global common future defined by GHGs stock Nation states National Inventories (domestic) flow A SNA GHG a/c Trade a/c Avoided damage Global Trade B flow Avoided damage Production and Consumption a/c to match C flow Avoided damage mitigation GCP-JU Global carbon management

7. What should world do?Mitigation and adaptation GCP-JU

8. Projected impacts of climate change Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Fallingyields in many developed regions Possible risingyields in some high latitude regions Water Significant fall in water availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – melt-water supplies threatened in several areas Sea level rise threatens major cities Ecosystems Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Rising number of species face extinction Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding,heat waves Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system GCP-JU Source: stern review

9. SNAthrough environment and trade lense SEEA, STA GCP-JU

10. Alternative mitigation options • Comparing Mitigation potential and cost • Through technology • Through lifestyle change • Through trade GCP-JU

11. A-M • Adaptation is Damage cost • Mitigation is Maintenance cost for the Natural Capital • There is tradeoff • Early mitigation reduces adaptation cost and vice versa • How to build into the various models adaptation cost is also a major challenge GCP-JU

12. Beyond Economic GrowthNew Paradigm Sustainable Development GCP-JU

13. Weak Sustainability Criterion Genuine Investment Capital Portfolio Manmade capital Human capital Natural Capital GCP-JU GCP-JU

14. (Protocol) GHGs Short Lived Gases Particulates 1.56 Wm-2 CO2 1 0.47 Wm-2 CH4 21 0.14 Wm-2 N2O 310 HFC 140 Little now SF6 23,900 PFC Large O3 CO NOx SO2 • Cooling Aerosols • Heating Aerosols (transport over long distances) GLOBAL LOCAL to REGIONAL Decades and Centuries Weeks and Days Days Climate Forcing Pollutants GCP-JU

15. FAQs in developing economies*Can sustainable development be achieved unilaterally?*Can nation states : plan their development pathway, organise activities with national perspectives? maintain policy and institutional autonomy? GCP-JU

16. Growing challengesand growing complexities • Traditional challenges of economic growth • Unfinished agenda • Non declining consumption goal • New challenges • Non declining productive base • Non declining consumption • National • Global Panacea: Beyond growth , beyond boundaries Information: Global connectivity GCP-JU

17. National vs. global agenda GCP-JU

18. Global externality • New challenge • Complex problem *Additional Risk to sustainability *How to manage Risk Necessary condition? Non declining productive base? GCP-JU

19. Economy-wide Models in Integrated Assessment of Climate Policy GCP-JU

20. Technical change • Endogenous technical change appears as R&D, LBD and combination • Bottom up are more consistent than Top down in LBD • Exogenous parameters: AEEI • Arbitrary, good guess, production model based? • CRS, DRS, IRS • Time trend, scale effect, R&D, LBD difficult to separate and varies across functional forms GCP-JU

21. baseline • Population growth • GDP • Energy use • Crude oil prices USD 25-29 • Non comparability of bottom up and top down studies GCP-JU

22. Key uncertainties • the mitigation potential projections include: • Rate of technology development and diffusion • Cost of future technology • Future energy and carbon prices • Level of activity • Policy drivers, both climate and non-climate GCP-JU

23. Indian Economy GCP-JU

24. Reference case: carbon emission GCP-JU

25. Marginal Abatement Cost (2030): India GCP-JU

26. GDP growth GCP-JU

27. Population Below Poverty Line GCP-JU

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30. Three Pillar Approach • Economic • Social • Environmental GCP-JU

31. GCP-JU 31

32. Map 5. Recommended Top Economic Priorities GCP-JU 32

33. Map 4. Recommended Top Social Priorities GCP-JU 33

34. Map 3. Recommended Top Environmental Priorities GCP-JU 34

35. Reactive adaptation need assessment GCP-JU

36. Current Practice GCP-JU

37. India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change2009 GCP-JU

38. Jadavpur University Global Change Programme http://juglobalchangeprogram.org/ Thank you GCP-JU