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Air Quality Forecasting in Europe

Air Quality Forecasting in Europe. Henk Eskes • European ensemble forecasts: GEMS and PROMOTE • Air Quality forecasts for the Netherlands. GMES. http://www.gmes.info/. GMES and atmospheric composition / air quality. GMES Atmospheric projects: PROMOTE (ESA) and GEMS (EU)

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Air Quality Forecasting in Europe

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  1. Air Quality Forecasting in Europe Henk Eskes • European ensemble forecasts: GEMS and PROMOTE • Air Quality forecasts for the Netherlands

  2. GMES http://www.gmes.info/

  3. GMES and atmospheric composition / air quality GMES Atmospheric projects: PROMOTE (ESA) and GEMS (EU) MACC (2009 onward) Follow-up of GEMS and GMES Atmosphere Service Core service: Atmospheric composition on global and European scale

  4. OMI and PROMOTE http://www.gse-promote.org

  5. GHG AER GRG RAQ GEMS subprojects • Greenhouse Gases (GHG) • Global Reactive Gases (GRG) • Aerosols (AER) • Regional Air Quality (RAQ) Validation (VAL) Production (PRO)

  6. RAQ GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality • Production of regional forecasts of chemical species and air quality indices based on an ensemble of air-quality models on the European scale

  7. RAQ GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality

  8. RAQ GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality

  9. Data assimilation Satellite Air quality prediction Model Assimilation Surface network

  10. Assimilation: NWP vs. Atmospheric Chemistry • In NWP uncertainties in the initial state will diverge. • In atmospheric chemistry (regional scale) the uncertainty is mainly related to uncertainty in model input data, physical parameterizations, or from gaps in our knowledge of the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the surface. Impact of initial state rapidly decreases with increasing forecast period. -> In NWP the assimilation should first of all optimise the initial state -> In atmospheric chemistry the assimilation should target the model processes, e.g. optimise the emissions, boundary conditions, deposition .. Advanced assimilation approaches needed: Ensemble Kalman filter and 4D-Var approaches most popular

  11. Assimilation: NWP vs. Atmospheric Chemistry Analysis Forecast Initial-state Initial-state + Emission Emission Courtesy: Hendrik Elbern, Köln

  12. Air quality forecasts for the Netherlands Dutch SmogProg project, User Support Programme, NIVR, 2007-2008 • Aim: To replace the (simple) statistical AQ forecast now issued by RIVM • Collaboration of three Dutch institutes RIVM, KNMI, TNO • Based on Dutch LOTOS-EUROS model, and French CHIMERE model • Region covering the Netherlands and surroundings (about 10 km resol) Use high-resolution meteorological input, i.e. KNMI - HIRLAM • Assimilation of surface and satellite data NO2 from OMI on EOS-Aura • First focus on ozone and precursors • Project started beginning 2007l

  13. Air quality forecasts for the Netherlands • Two-day ozone forecast available on the web (demo service) http://www.lml.rivm.nl.nl • Plan: become operational in May 2008 - ozone forecasts during summer.nl

  14. Daily variation in ozone: Chimère vs surface 4 Aug 2007 5 Aug 2007 6 Aug 2007

  15. OMI near-real time NO2, 13-16 October 2005

  16. Chimere @ OMI overpass time, 13-16 Oct 2005

  17. Assimilation of satellite and surface data • LOTOS-EUROS + Ensemble Kalman Filter Developed at TNO / RIVM • Interface between LE / Kalman, surface data and OMI-NO2 data available • First experiments have started

  18. Is OMI NO2 related to concentrations at surface ? Wang et al, GRL 2007 Pepijn Veefkind

  19. Cities of the size >100,000 habitants

  20. Conclusions • In a few years there will be operational systems in place for tropospheric composition and air quality forecasting / monitoring / reanalyses, similar to what is in place now for NWP Europe: GMES Atmosphere Service • These systems rely on high-quality observational data on especially the troposphere and boundary layer composition: both in-situ (surface networks, aircraft, ..) and from satellites • Sustainability preferred: operational satellites (such as sentinels 4 and 5) development of assimilation is long-term investment • High spatial resolution important especially for regional AQ Model resolution on European domain will be around 10 km or better emission distribution very irregular (points, lines), chemistry non-linear • Multiple observations/day and (near) global coverage of importance for diurnal cycle of air pollution, daily monitoring, major events (dust/fire/transport) TROPOMI measures key compounds (O3, NO2, CO, CH4, HCHO, SO2, ..) A TROPOMI - post EnviSat / Aura - would be major component of the GAS

  21. That's all

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