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M makroekonomika

M makroekonomika. leqcia 7 saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi ( saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, sasesxo kapitalis, fulis da Sromis bazrebis urTierTqmedeba ) nikoloz ostapenko. leqcia 7 - saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi.

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M makroekonomika

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  1. M makroekonomika leqcia 7 saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZel da moklevadian periodebSi (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, sasesxo kapitalis, fulis da Sromis bazrebis urTierTqmedeba) nikoloz ostapenko

  2. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi wonasworoba moklevadian periodSi wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • moklevadianperiodSigvaqvsorimniSvnelovanidaSveba: • 1. fasebixistia– racniSnavsrommoklevadianperiodSifasebis done ekonomikaSiaricvleba; • 2. ekonomikaarimyofebasrulidasaqmebisdoneze– racniSnavsromekonomikaSiarsebobsWarbisawarmoosimZlevreebi; • situaciasrocaerTdrouladyvelamakroekonomikuribazariwonasworobaSiimyofeba, magramarasrulidasaqmebisdoneze, ewodebasaerToekonomikuriwonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi;

  3. IS modeli warmoadgens mTliani Sedida prodiqtisa(Y) da saprocento ganakveTis(i) wyvilTa simravles, romelic Seesabameba wonasworul fass(P*) da gulisxmobs, rom investiciebi(I) da danazogebi(S) erTmaneTis tolia(anu sasesxo kepitalis da saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazarebi wonasworobaSia). LM modeli - mTliani Sida prodiqtisa(Y) da saprocento ganakveTis(i) wyvilTa simravles, romelic Seesabameba wonasworul fass(P*) da gulisxmobs, rom fulze moTxovna(L) da fulis miwodeba(M) erTmaneTis tolia da wonasworoba miRweulia fasiani qaraldebis bazarzec(anu finansuri bazari wonasworobaSia). amitom saqonlisa da momsaxurebis, kapitalis da fulis bazarze erToblivi wonasworobas Seesabameba mxolod erTi (Y*, i*) wyvili. grafikulad es SegviZlia Semdeg nairad vaCvenoT: • leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi IS-LM modeli wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi

  4. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi E i E,A A A Y E=Y A2 A1 A1 A2 Y1 Y2 i LM i* IS M/P Ca+G Y1 Y2 Las Y 1/V M/P Ltr

  5. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y erToblivi wonasworobis damyarebis pirobebi moklevadian periodSi wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • Tuekonomika IS mrudiszemoTmdebarobs, maSinadgiliaqvssiWarbessaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarze. Tuekonomika IS mrudisqvemoTmdebarobs, maSinadgiliaqvsdeficitssaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarze. • Tuekonomika LM mrudiszemoTmdebarobs, maSinadgiliaqvssiWarbesfulisbazarze. Tuekonomika LM mrudisqvemoTmdebarobs, maSinadgiliaqvsdeficitsfulisbazarze. i* • TuekonomikaarimyofebawonasworobaSi. maSinwonasworoniskengadasvlasxvadasxvanairadSeiZlebaganxorcieldes, esdamokidebulia “ adamianTasubieqturqcevaze”. • arsebobstendencia, romxSirSemTxvevaSisaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazariufronelamodiswonasworobaSividrefulis, radganwarmoebismoculobiscvlilebasufrometidrosWirdebavidrefulismoculobis. LM Y* IS

  6. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y erToblivi wonasworobis damyareba moklevadian periodSi wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • dauSvaTekonomikaimyofeba H wertilSi(YS>YDdaM>L), radganbazarzemonawileTagegmebiaremTxvevaerTmaneTs, amitommosalodneliamiwodebiskoreqtirebebi. fulismiwodebissiWarbefulisbazarzegamoiwvevssaprocentoganakveTisSemcirebas, flismiwodebadaiwyebsSemcirebas, xolomoTxovnazrdasi2-Si fulisbazarimovawonasworobaSi, magramsaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarze am drosiqnebakvlavsiWarbe. moklevadianperiodSisaprocentoganakveTisSemcirebaerTismxriv, gamoiwvevsinvestiviurimoTxovniszrdas, magrammeoresmxriv • msgavsadviTardebamovlenebisxva • situaciaSic. i* H sawarmoebi aRmoaCenen Warb maragebs da daiwyebsn warmoebis Semcirebas, da maSasadame dasaqmebis Semcirebas, rac Seamcirebs Semosavlebs. es ukanaskneli ki gamiwvevs kvlav siWarbes fulis bazarze da procesi ganmeordeba manam sanam ar damyardeba wonasworoba i*, Y* werTilSi. i1 LM i2 G Y* IS Y2 Y1

  7. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y IS mrudis gadaadgileba –axal wonasworobaSi gadasvla wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • dauSvaTekonomikaimyofebawonasworobaSi (i0, Y0) wertilSidainvestorebizrdianinvesticiebsΔI sidisdiT. maSinISmrudi gadaadgildebamarjvnivΔI-is SesabamisimultiplikatorissidisdiT. i0 saprocentoganakveTispirobebSierToblivi moTxovnaizrdebaY2 sididemde. magramrogorcvxedavT am SemTxvevaSifulisbazarzedeficitia (M<L).radgansaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarzegaizardamoTxovna, amitomgaizardafulzemoTxovnacgarigebebisaTvis. Tuerovnulibankiargazrdisfulimasas, maSinadamianebi • aseromfulisbazariamcirebs • multiplikatorisefeqts. daiwyebenTavianTiaqtivebisfuladgadaqcevas, magaliTadfasianiqaRaldebis, racgamoiwvevs am aqtivebisfasisdacemasdasaprocentoganakveTiszrdas. saprocentoganakveTiszrdakigamoiwvevssainvesticiomoTxovnisSemcirebasvidrewonasworobaardamyardeba(i1, Y1) wertilSi. LM ΔI i1 i0 IS0 IS1 Y0 Y2 Y1

  8. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y LM mrudis forma – sami kerZo SemTxveva wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • I monakveTze LMmrudidaxriskuTxedabalia. esgamowveuliaerTismxriv, SemosavlebisdabalidoniT, risgamocgarigebebze fulzemoTxovnadabalia; meoremxrivdabalisaprocentoganakveTisgamomaRaliafulzemoTxovnarogorcqonebaze; • II monakveTze LMmrudidaxriskuTxeufromaRaliavidre I monakveTzedaufrodaufroizrdeba. esgamowveuliaimiTrom, SedarebiTmaRaliSemosavlebisdonisgamogazrdiliagarigebebisaTvisfulzemoTxovnadasaprocentoganakveTiszrdisgamo • SemcirebuliafulzemoTxivnarogorc • qonebaze; • III monakveTzeZalianmaRalisaprocento • ganakveTebisgamoqonebisseqtori • dacarielebuliafulisgan, amitom • garigebebisaTvisfulzemoTxovnis • dakmayofilebaveRarxorcieldeba. Sedegad • veRarizrdebaekonomika. LM III I II

  9. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y IS mrudis gadaadgilebis sami kerZo SemTxveva wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • TuIS mrudi LMmrudisI monakveTzeimyofeba, maSinIS mrudisgadaadgilebisasmTlianadgamovlendebaavtonomiurixarjebismultiplikatorisefeqti. imitomromaseTSemTxvevaSisaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarzeerToblivimoTxovniszrdisSedegadgazrdilimoTxovnafulzegarigebebisaTvisumeteswiledqonebisseqtorSiarsebulifuliTdakmayofildeba. risgamocsaprocenroganakveTiumniSvnelodgaizrdeba. • TuIS mrudi LMmrudisII monakveTzeimyofeba, maSinIS mrudisgadaadgilebisasnawilobrivgamovlendebaavtonomiurixarjebismultiplikatorisefeqti. imitomromaseTSemTxvevaSierToblivimoTxovniszrdiTgazrdilifulzemoTxovnagarigebebisaTvisfasianiqaRaldebisgayidviTkmayofideba. racsaprocento • ganakveTiszrdasiwvevs. • TuIS mrudi LMmrudisIII monakveTze • imyofeba, maSinIS mrudisgadaadgilebisas • avtonomiurixarjebismultiplikatoris • efeqtinulistolia. imitomromaseT • SemTxvevaSierToblivimoTxovnis • zrdiTgazrdiligarigebebisaTvisfulze • moTxovnisdasakmayofilebladsakmarisi • fulisraodenobaararisekonomikaSi. IS0 LM IS1 IS0 IS1 IS0 IS1

  10. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y LM mrudis gadaadgileba wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • dauSvaTekonomikaimyofebawonasworobaSi (i0, Y0) wertilSidaerovnulibankizrdisfulismiwodebasesgamoiwvevsLM mrudisgadaadgilebasi0saprocentoganakveTispirobebSi. erTismxrovwarmoiqmnebaWarbifulismasaekonomikaSi, meoremxrivsiWarbesaqonlisadamomsaxurebisbazarze. WarbifulisgamosaojaxomeurneobebizrdianmoTxovnasfasianqaraldebzedasxvaaqtivebze, risgamoc am ukanasknelTafasi • izrdeba, xolosaprocentoganakveTi • mcirdeba (i1). saprocentoganakveTis • Semcirebazrdissainvesticio • moTxovnasdaizrdebaerovnuli • Semosavali (Y1). • maSasadamefulismiwodebisSedegad • adgiliaqvsmultiplikatorul • efeqts. LM0 LM1 i0 i1 IS Y0 Y1

  11. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y likviduri maxe wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • Tuwonasworobamyardeba LMmrudisI monakveTze(i0, Y0) wertilSi, maSinekonomikaxvdebae.w. likvidurmaxeSidafulismasiscvlileba(LM mrudisgadaadgileba)arcvlisrealurSemosavals.(Y)(keinzianurikoncefciismixedviT). LM0 LM1 i0 IS Y0

  12. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y investiciuri maxe wonasworobamoklevadianperiodSi • TuekonomikaSimagaliTadinvestorebSiWarbobsmomavalTandakavSirebiTpesimisturimolodinebi, esimasniSnavsromsaprocentoganakveTiscvlileba, am SemTxvevaSi, aRararisinvesticiebzezemoqmedebismniSvnelovanifaqtoridaISmrudivertikalurixdeba. aseTviTarebaSiekonomikaxvdebainvesticiurmaxeSi. Tuekonoikaimyofeba (i0, Y0) wertilSi, maSinfulismasiscvlileba(LM mrudisgadaadgileba) • arcvlisrealurSemosavals. • (keinzianurikoncefciismixedviT). LM0 LM1 IS i0 Y0

  13. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi wonasowroba grZelvadian periodSi wonasworobagrZelvadianperiodSi • grZelvadianperiodSigvaqvsorimniSvnelovanidaSveba: • 1. fasebielastikuria– racniSnavsromgrZelvadianperiodSifasebis done ekonomikaSiicvleba; • 2. ekonomikaimyofebasrulidasaqmebisdoneze –dasaqmebisimdoneze, rocamisizrda an Semcirebaamcirebsekonomikisefeqturobas – anumisoptimalurdoneze;

  14. dauSvaT Nsruli dasaqmebis donea – dasaqmebis am doneze Sromaze moTxovna da misi miwodeba erTmaneTis tolia.Y –warmoebis potenciuri donea – anu warmoebis done sruli dasaqmebis(N), kapitalis mocemuli maragebis(K) da arsebuli teqnologiis pirobebSi(A). Cven SegviZlia misTvis sawarmoo funqcia Semdegi saxiT CavweroT: Y=AF(K,N) F – warmoebis faqtorebsa(K,N) da warmoebis moculobas(Y) Soris kavSirs gamoxatavs. • leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi sruli dasaqmeba da warmoebis potenciuri done wonasworobagrZelvadianperiodSi

  15. Cveni mizania miviRoT mrudi romelic sruli dasaqmebis pirobebs (Y,i) koordinatTa sistemaSi gviCvenebda. vinaidan sruli dasaqmebis pironebSi warmoebis moculoba mxolod erTi Y=Y tolia, amitom is ar aris damokidebuli saprocento ganakveTis cvlilebaze da mas vertikaluri saxe eqneba. aRvniSnoT sruli dasaqmebis mrudi FE –Ti. • leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y FE - mrudi wonasworobagrZelvadianperiodSi • D Y=AF(K,N) furmulidan Cans romTu: • mwarmoebluroba - AicvlebagrZelvadianperiodSiFE –mrudigadaadgildeba; • kapitalismaragebi – K icvlebagrZelvadianperiodSiFE –mrudigadaadgildeba; • mosaxleobisraodenobadamaSasadameSromazemoTxovna – N icvlebagrZelvadianperiodSiFE –mrudigadaadgildeba; FE Y

  16. sutuacias roca yvela makroekonomikuri bazari imyofeba erTdroulad wonasworobaSi da amasTan ekonomika imyofeba sruli dasaqmebis doneze ewodeba saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi. FE mrudi gviCvenebs yvela wonasworul wertils roca Sromis bazari imyofeba wonasworobaSi; IS mrudi gviCvenebs yvela wonasworul wertils roca saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari imyofeba wonasworobaSi;(sasesxo kapitalis bazaric) LM mrudi gviCvenebs yvela wonasworul wertils roca fulis bazari imyofeba wonasworobaSi; saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworobis wertils grZelvadian periodSi yovelTvis gansazRvravs IS da FE mrudebs gadakveTis wertili. LM mrudi fasebis donis koreqtirebis xarze uaxlovdeba am mocemul wonasworobas. • leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi saerTo ekonomikuri wonasworoba grZelvadian periodSi wonasworobagrZelvadianperiodSi

  17. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y wonasworobagrZelvadianperiodSi FE • ekonomikaEwerTilSiimyofebasaerToekonomikurwonasworobaSigrZelvadianiperiodisaTvis. imitomrom am SemTxvevaSiwonasworobaSiaerTdroulad, rogorcsaqonlisadamomsaxurebis, isesasesxokapitalis, fulisdaSromisbazrebi. amasTanekonomikaimyofebasrulidasaqmebisdoneze. LM i* E IS Y*

  18. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi i Y LM mrudis gadaadgileba wonasworobagrZelvadianperiodSi • TuizrdebafulismiwodebaeszrdisrealurifulismiwodebasmoklevadianperiodSidaLMmrudigadaadgildebamarjvniv, maSinmoklevadianperiodSigaizrdebaerToblivimowodeba. saprocentoganakveTisSemcirebisgamomwarmoeblebigazrdianinvesticiebsdamaSasadememoTxovnasSromazeracgazrdisrealurxelfass. realurixelfasiszrdisgamomwamoeblebigazrdianfasebs. fasebiszrdisgamoSemcirdebaerTismxrivsamomxmareblomoTxovnadameoresmxrivrealurifulisraodenoba. maSsadameSemcirdebawarmoebismoculobadaLM mrudigadmoadgildebaisevukan, oRondgazrdilifasebispirobebSi. FE FE, LM i* LM, E Y* IS Y1

  19. leqcia 7 -saerToekonomikuriwonasworobagrZeldamoklevadianperiodebSi ZiriTadicnebebi • ISmodeli • LMmodeli • FEmodeli • saerToekonomikuriwonasworoba; • xistifasebi • elastikurifasebi • srulidasaqmeba • warmoebispotenciuri done • likvidurobismaxe • investiciurimaxe

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