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16 th Int’l Loss Prevention Symposium June 16-19, 2019

Explore the journey of loss prevention from the 1974 Delft Symposium to the present day, highlighting the advancements, challenges, and future possibilities in risk prediction and prevention.

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16 th Int’l Loss Prevention Symposium June 16-19, 2019

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  1. 16th Int’l Loss Prevention Symposium June 16-19, 2019 • Then, and now: • Delft 1974 versus 2019, more than four decades and 16 Loss Prevention symposia further! Hans J. Pasman hjpasman@gmail.com

  2. Front page of the Proceedings of the 1971 Loss Prevention Symposium organized by the Institution of Chemical Engineers (IChemE) at Newcastle upon Tyne

  3. Epilogue by Mr. Ch. BuschmannChairman 1974 Local Organizing Committee • Club of Rome – Forester model • 2nd and 3rd order damaging effects • WASH-1400 The Reactor Safety Study • Quantification of Risk? • Initiation of Rijnmond COVO study • Central world-wide data bank?

  4. Comparison of list of topics or themes

  5. Safety level Culture Safety Management System Safety in management focus Factors Attention to Human Failure/ Technical safety: improved materials and designs Year 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Knowledge level has been growing From hindsight to foresight Preventive thinking Resilience? Legislation 2020

  6. Trend of decreasing injury and fatality Shell company 1960-1995 and sub-contractors Int’l Oil & Gas Producers 2000-14

  7. Loss Prevention Then, and Now • Tremendous increase personal safety • Shift of focus towards prevention • Use of scientifically based methods • Support by academia • Educational courses bachelor level, Ph.D’s • 1990s Competition and ‘downsizing’ • Shift towards consultant and academic participation

  8. The 1974 papers • “Safety is a money spinner” • Checklist • Prof. Trevor Kletz’s Myths of the Chem. Ind. • Vapor loud explosion research • Gas and dust explosion: • Dr. Bartknecht’s 1 m3 - vessel, KG and KStvalues. • Gas dispersion • Emergency response (in ‘industrial conurbation’)

  9. Hazardous properties of substances

  10. Milestones: HAZOP - SMS - LOPA – STS1975 – 1990 – 1995 – 2000 System approach: System is more than the sum of parts Safety is emergent Nancy G. Leveson, 2011. Engineering a safer world, systems thinking applied to safety, The MIT Press

  11. Conclusion • Evolution is from hindsight to foresight. • But, “loss prevention” calls for risk prediction. • There is an ‘Ocean’ of possibilities and uncertainty. • Hazard scenario identification needs improvement. • Digital P&ID + simulation + automation + thinking. • Enables risk assessment in design, layout, planning. • Digitization; Big Data & Analytics are on their way. • Indicators: holistically: plant, people, procedures. • Dynamic risk assessment operations. • Resilience assessment and preparation.

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