1. AP Human Geography Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

2. 2.1/ 2.2 Review • Where are the major population clusters? • Why do people live and not live in certain areas? • What are the different types of population densities? • What are CBR, CDR, NIR, TFR, IMR, life expectancy, doubling time?

3. A note on “Models” • In this class, we will discuss a variety of different models. • Models are examples that help us better understand a major concept or idea. • Models are NOT exact and are flexible. • Models are NOT perfect. • Models might look different in reality than the do in theory.

4. Example: Christaller’s Model The model The reality

5. What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)? • DTM examines the change in the population within a country over time. • DTM is broken down into 4 stages. • Rates of growth/ decline vary from country to country. • DTM is primarily affected by CBR and CDR. • All countries are in some stage of the DTM.

6. Demographic Transition Model

7. Population Growth over time

8. DTM: Stage 1- Low Growth • WHAT? • Low population growth rate (NIR) • High birth rates • High death rates • WHY? • Epidemics and plagues keep death rates high • Food sources are uncertain (hunting and gathering, basic farming) • Humans have spent most of history in Stage 1 (400,000 B.C. to 1800 A.D.) • No countries are currently in Stage 1

9. Demographic Transition Model

10. DTM: Stage 2- High Growth • WHAT? • Death rates decline rapidly • Birth rates remain the same • This leads to rapid population growth • WHY? • People are still accounting for high death rates and making lots o’ babies! • Increase in wealth leads to better sanitation, technology (farming), better overall health…people live longer! • First countries entered Stage 2 during the Industrial Revolution (late 1700’s, early 1800’s) • Europe/ N. America enter Stage 2 1800’s but does not reach Africa, Asia, Latin America until the 1950’s (Medical Revolution) • Currently, most of sub- Saharan Africa is Stage 2.

11. Demographic Transition Model

12. DTM: Stage 3- Moderate Growth • WHAT? • CBR drops rapidly, gets closer to CDR • Population still grows, but much less rapidly • TFR above 2.1 • WHY? • People decide not to have as many children (lower IMR, children are liabilities, not assets) • European/ N. American countries moved from Stage 2 to 3 in the 1950’s • Some Asian/ Latin American countries moved from Stage 2 to 3 recently. (1980’s/ 1990’s)

13. Demographic Transition Model

14. DTM: Stage 4- Low Growth • WHAT? • Death Rate and Birth Rate are very close/ • NIR close to 0 (zero population growth) • TFR around 2.1 • WHY? • Women enter labor force • Birth control • Increased income/ leisure time • Most European/ NA countries have reached Stage 4.

15. Demographic Transition Model

16. Possible 5th Stage • WHAT? • Higher death rates than birth rates, irreversible population decline. • TFR below 2.1

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