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Global Warming and Water Management

Global Warming and Water Management. Can Cooperation help us avoid conflict over water scarcity?. The Problem. Global warming will increase the uncertainties surrounding our water supply through more erratic rainfall, loss of snowmelt runoff, etc. Specific effects will vary by region.

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Global Warming and Water Management

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  1. Global Warming and Water Management Can Cooperation help us avoid conflict over water scarcity?

  2. The Problem • Global warming will increase the uncertainties surrounding our water supply through more erratic rainfall, loss of snowmelt runoff, etc. Specific effects will vary by region. • Most damaging to systems that are already stressed (IPCC reports that 1.7 billion people live in water stressed countries). • So why does this matter? • People will fight over it.

  3. The Problem: Legal/Political Conflict • Disputes in the developed world- • Waning Colorado River Water • Southeastern Drought • Army Corps of Engineers control how much water is released from Reservoirs in Georgia downstream to Florida and Alabama • Must take into account interests of each state (Georgia-municipal water/Florida-sportfishing stocks, oyster industry, endangered species etc). • Florida and Georgia both seeking legal action, Alabama has no water management plan despite two years of drought!

  4. The Problem: Legal/Political Conflict (2) • The potential for reduced water supply to fast-growing Atlanta caused Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue to lead a large group in a prayer for rain last Tuesday (Nov. 13).

  5. The Problem: Violent Conflict • In and among undeveloped countries conflict supposedly will be much worse- Water Wars!! • Nordas and Gleditsch offer numerous alarmists quotes: • Dept. of Defense (Randall and Schwartz 2003) • UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon 2007 • Kevin Noone Director of Intern. Geosphere-Biosphere Program • IPCC, more restrained but still alarmist and unscientific

  6. The Problem: Violent Conflict (2) • What are the causal pathways? • Scarcity directly causes conflict, either within or between states. • Demand induced via population growth • Supply induced (either because of environmental change or substandard infrastructure) • Distributional-scarcity is greater for some groups • Climate changed induced migration may cause conflict in host communities • We have a word for such reasoning….

  7. Malthusian! Humans are prisoners of their environments… Kantian! Humans can cooperate. Institutions help. The Problem: Violent Conflict (3)

  8. Motivating Questions • Is violent conflict over water inevitable? To what extent are the Malthusians right? • Is it adaptation to water scarcity possible without violence? How do we currently adapt to scarcity? To what extent are the Kantians right?

  9. How probable is violent conflict? • Does scarcity directly lead to civil war? – Not really. • Raleigh and Urdal (2007): test a disaggregated model covering all countries, water scarcity matters but not that much compared to demographic, economic, and political variables. • What about just Africa though?

  10. How probable is violent conflict? (2) • Hendrix and Glaser (2007)

  11. How probable is violent conflict? (3) • Meier Bond and Bond (2007): precipitation variability doesn’t lead to increased cattle raids in the horn of africa. • Will migration cause civil conflict? • Maybe (Reuveny 2007): counts 38 documented episodes of environment-induced migration, finds conflict results in 19 cases while the other 19 were peaceful. • Gleditsch and Salehyan (2007): refugees are more likely to spread conflict than cause it. • What about interstate war?

  12. How probable is violent conflict? (4) • Evidence from Shared River Basins • Gleditsch et al (2006)

  13. How probable is violent conflict? (5) • Yoffe, Wolfe, and Giordano (2003)

  14. Summary so far • Conflict is certainly a possible result of climate change induced water scarcity but: • The causal chain between scarcity and conflict is still sketchy, general human misery is much more likely. • Conflict can be averted through successful water management. How does this work?

  15. The Solution? What is water management? • Demand (restrict usage) and supply (build infrastructure) side regulations dealing with: • Municipal water supply • Irrigation • Industrial • Hydropower • Navigation • Pollution Control • Flood Management

  16. The Solution? (2) • As the IPCC notes (Ch. 4.6.4): “having the ability to adapt to change is not the same as actually adapting to change.” • So why haven’t management tools been widely implemented? • IPCC says (4.8.3)- we need more knowledge! • Better monitoring data on supply and usage, better understanding of patterns of variability, better management techniques and decision criteria… • But…Where’s the politics?

  17. The Solution? (3) • The ability for relevant political actors to cooperate is critical for effective water management. Why? • Management is costly, who will bear the costs? How will losers be compensated? • Management choices are circumscribed by existing institutions

  18. Example of Water Institutions-CA • “Water is the life-blood of Southern California” –MWD 1931. • Local governments and water districts controlled water management pre-1920. • Metropolitan Water District is a cooperative of 26 member agencies • 14 cities, 11 municipal water districts, and the countywide San Diego Water authority • Supplies 60 percent of the water used in Urban Southern California.

  19. Metropolitan Water District • MWD’s early history is that of a water importer: • In late 1920s, MWD financed and built 242 mile Colorado River Aqueduct. • In 1970s imported water from Northern CA via State Water Project’s Aqueduct system. • How has MWD adapted to increasing water scarcity?

  20. Increasing Scarcity of Colorado River Water for CA • California’s allocation is 4.4 MAF per year, plus half of any surplus. Arizona v. CA 1963. • Surplus allocation allowed CA to consume 20% more than its basic allotment. • Reduced streamflow cut surpluses, upper basin states, Arizona, and Mexico now using most of their allocation. • In 2002, Interior department limited CA to 4.4 MAF by declaring the end of surplus conditions.

  21. MWD’s Reaction • Switch from water importation to in-state transfers from N. CA, conservation, storage, and rural to urban water transfers. • Required abandoning its traditional alliance with agribusiness. • MWD faces opposition everywhere • Peripheral Canal Defeated in 1982 by Central valley interests and Environmentalists • Calfed Bay-Delta Program only partially implemented by 2002 Proposition 50.

  22. How is water conflict resolved in the U.S.? • Institutional bargaining amongst every level and branch of government • Increasing scarcity merely exacerbates ongoing conflicts • The federal government and the court system arbitrate • Expertise aggregated into water agencies like MWD. • Conflicts never turn violent, though there are always losers (i.e. Mexico).

  23. Questions for Discussion • Given the lack of any water infrastructure and management in much of the developing world, can management be improved? Is migration a forgone conclusion? • Is international water aid a realistic possibility?

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