Managing Enrollment by Managing Merit Aid

1. Managing Enrollmentby Managing Merit Aid How Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll Jonathan Jacobs Director of Enrollment Management Research 541-346-7406 jsj@uoregon.edu

2. Aligning Financial Aid with Enrollment Goals • Our Primary Financial Aid goals: • Make UO affordable. • Decrease debt load. • Leverage existing federal/state aid. • Balance need-based and merit-based aid. • Presented in an easily understood manner to students and parents.

3. What is the Impact? 40% Yield 50% Yield How much do we need to increase aid to increase yield 10%? Resident Admit 4.0 HSGPA 60% Go somewhere else

4. Research Questions • What effect does additional merit aid have on the probability of enrollment? • How do we model the effect of restructured aid on an entering class? • How do we make that model interactive so we can model different aid packages dynamically and instantly?

5. 1. Effect of Aid • Modeling Population • Freshman Admits, fall 2011 • Target Variable • BINARY: Student enrolls at the University in the fall • Model Methodologies Neural Network

6. Independent Variables • Independent Variables • TOTAL GRANT AID (minus federal/state) • High School GPA • SAT or converted ACT • Admission to Honor’s College • Residency • Day application was submitted • First generation • Underrepresented race/ethnicity • (REMOVED) UO First on FAFSA (if before May 1) • Significant interactions

7. 2. Modeling Aid • Scoring Population • All new entering freshmen, fall 2011 • Probability of enrollment at different aid levels • 14 datasets scored through the same model • Example: Bob Apple. GPA: 3.91, SAT: 1110 Probability of enrolling at the University of Oregon at different merit aid levels. Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

8. 3. Dynamic Modeling • Group populations dynamically. • Allow differing aid amounts. Bob Apple, Resident, GPA 3.91, SAT 1110 Kerry Oki, Resident, GPA 4.04, SAT 1380 Chris Coe, Nonresident, GPA 3.86 SAT 1070

9. GRANTS_NEW_PROG=ORIG GRANTS_NEW_PROG=0 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=1 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=2 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=3 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=4 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=5 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=6 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=7 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=8 GRANTS_NEW_PROG=9

12. Resident Merit Scholarship Existing Dean’s Award *Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review process. An additional Dean’s Access grant of $1,000 is awarded to resident students with demonstrated need. New Merit Program 1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT. Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

14. Nonresident Merit Scholarship Existing Dean’s Award *Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review process. New Merit Program 1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT. Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

16. Benefits of the New Merit Award Assuming the same 2011 Admit Pool The model shows a net increase of 106 admits enrolling due to reallocating and increasing aid. Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

17. Elasticity of Demand 3.3 point increase to yield. 10% persuaded by aid 90% already coming 10.5 point increase to yield. 30% persuaded by aid 70% already coming

18. Managing Enrollmentby Managing Merit Aid How Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll Jonathan Jacobs Director of Enrollment Management Research 541-346-7406 jsj@uoregon.edu