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Market Outlook

Market Outlook. ISU Extension Swine In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 29, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use.

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Market Outlook

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  1. Market Outlook ISU Extension Swine In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 29, 2012 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB, 2012 Unofficial Projections

  5. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  6. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  7. World Wheat Production Source: USDA

  8. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 3/28/2012

  9. Change of Export Pace

  10. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  11. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  12. Situation Facing Hog Producers in 2012 Higher feed prices for most of year Corn: $5.80-$6.60/bu in 2011/12 $5.18 in 2010/2011 Soybean meal: $290-$320/ton in 2011/12 $345 in 2010/2011 Feed prices should moderate moving into 2012/13 crop year Source: USDA-ERS

  13. Projected 2012 Season-Average Corn Price

  14. Projected 2012 Season-Average Soy Price

  15. Pork Production Will Increase Billion Pounds * Forecast Source: USDA-ERS

  16. Hog Inventory Increased Million Head * Forecast Source: USDA-ERS

  17. Only Modest Growth in Sows Farrowing Million Head * Quarters 1-2 NASS Reported , Quarters 3-4 Forecast Source: USDA-ERS

  18. Growth in Pigs per Litter Continues 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.7 % 2.2 % Head 2.1 % 1.5 % *Forecast Source: USDA-ERS

  19. Canada’s Hog Inventory & Weak Dollar Will Limit Imports Million Head Million Head * Slaughter and Imports Forecast Source: USDA-ERS

  20. 2011 Pork Exports Were A Record * Forecast Source: USDA-ERS

  21. Hog Prices Dollars per cwt * Forecast Source: USDA-ERS

  22. Planted Area for the 8 Majors Source: USDA-ERS

  23. Corn Use for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

  24. Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

  25. Current Futures Source: CME Group, 3/26/2012

  26. Livestock Production for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

  27. Per Capita Consumption Source: USDA-ERS

  28. Prices Source: USDA-ERS

  29. Returns Over Cash Costs Source: USDA-ERS

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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