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Crop Market Outlook - Sept. 3, 2015

This report provides an overview of the current state of the U.S. corn and soybean markets, including yield estimates, production data, export shifts, and cost margins. It also discusses supply and demand concerns, the impact of the strong U.S. dollar, and future crop prices.

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Crop Market Outlook - Sept. 3, 2015

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  1. Crop Market Outlook Sept. 3, 2015 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Early Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Early Soy Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  7. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  10. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  11. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

  12. Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

  13. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  14. Current Corn Futures 3.68 3.42 Source: CME Group, 9/3/2015

  15. Current Soybean Futures 8.25 8.22 Source: CME Group, 9/3/2015

  16. 2015/16 Crop Margins

  17. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  18. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  19. Iowa Corn Costs Overall 75% increase 88% 26% 88% 46% Source: AgDM A1-21

  20. Iowa Soybean Costs Overall 69% increase 88% 14% 56% 72% Source: AgDM A1-21

  21. Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-ERS

  22. Thoughts for 2015 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Rain made grain • Exports weaken as dollar strengthens and China slows • Negative margins for 2015-2016 crops

  23. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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