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2013 Crop Market Outlook

2013 Crop Market Outlook. Cedar County Coop Grower Meeting Tipton, Iowa Feb. 8, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Prices.

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2013 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook Cedar County Coop Grower Meeting Tipton, Iowa Feb. 8, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Prices

  5. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  6. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  10. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  15. Ethanol Stocks

  16. Fuel Prices

  17. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  18. Current Corn Futures 6.69 5.34 5.18 Source: CME Group, 2/7/2013

  19. Current Soybean Futures 14.13 12.59 12.23 Source: CME Group, 2/7/2013

  20. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  21. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  22. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  23. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  24. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing • Risk management • Crop insurance • Price protection

  25. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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