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2013 Crop Market Outlook

2013 Crop Market Outlook. Coon Rapids, Iowa Mar. 1, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Prices. Corn Yields. Top: 2012 Yield

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2013 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2013 Crop Market Outlook Coon Rapids, Iowa Mar. 1, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Prices

  5. Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  6. Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  7. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  10. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  11. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  12. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  13. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  14. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  15. Fuel Prices

  16. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  17. Current Corn Futures 5.24 5.06 Source: CME Group, 2/28/2013

  18. Current Soybean Futures 11.96 11.57 Source: CME Group, 2/28/2013

  19. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  20. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  21. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  22. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  23. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing • Risk management • Crop insurance • Price protection

  24. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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