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2011 Crop Market Outlook

2011 Crop Market Outlook. Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 13, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use. Source: USDA.

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2011 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2011 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Apr. 13, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA

  5. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  6. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  7. World Wheat Production Source: USDA

  8. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  9. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  10. Corn vs. Wheat(CME July 2011 futures)

  11. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  12. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  16. Wheat Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  18. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  19. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  20. Fuel Prices

  21. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  22. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  23. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  24. Projected ‘10 Season-Average Wheat Price

  25. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  26. Crop Shifts Source: USDA-NASS

  27. U.S. Corn Supply and Use

  28. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

  29. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use

  30. Weather Concerns

  31. Planting Forecast Temperature Precipitation Source: NWS-CPC

  32. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  33. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  34. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

  35. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Supply/demand concerns • Planting intentions vs. realizations • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?

  36. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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