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2011 Crop Market Outlook

2011 Crop Market Outlook. Coleman Research Group Presentation Sept. 1, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use. World Corn Production. Source: USDA.

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2011 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2011 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Sept. 1, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use

  5. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  6. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  7. World Wheat Production Source: USDA

  8. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  9. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  10. Corn vs. Wheat Source: CME Group, 8/29/2011

  11. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  12. Corn Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  13. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  14. Soy Advance Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  16. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  18. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  19. Ethanol Margins Source: CARD

  20. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  21. Corn Grind for Ethanol Source: DOE, EIA

  22. Ethanol Stocks Source: DOE, EIA

  23. Nearby Futures (Jan. 3, 2011 = 1)

  24. Projected Corn Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  25. Projected Soybean Yields Source: USDA-NASS

  26. Winter Wheat Yields Last Year KS 45 OK 31 TX 34 US 46.8 Source: USDA-NASS

  27. Projected Spring Wheat Yields Projected Change in Production Hard Red Spring -17% White +3% Durum -47% Source: USDA-NASS

  28. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  29. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  30. Projected ‘11 Season-Average Wheat Price

  31. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Supply/demand concerns • Droughts, floods, heat waves, etc. • Biofuel growth and energy demand • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand?

  32. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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