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2012 Crop Market Outlook

2012 Crop Market Outlook. Coleman Research Group Presentation Nov. 7, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use.

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2012 Crop Market Outlook

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  1. 2012 Crop Market Outlook Coleman Research Group Presentation Nov. 7, 2012 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. U.S. Wheat Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  5. Price Ratios Since May 1

  6. Projected Corn Yields

  7. Objective Corn Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  8. Projected Soybean Yields

  9. Objective Soybean Yield Data Source: USDA-NASS

  10. Winter Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  11. Other Spring Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  12. Durum Wheat Production Source: USDA-NASS

  13. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  15. World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  16. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  17. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  18. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  19. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Wheat Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  21. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  22. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  23. Current Corn Futures 6.87 5.99 5.63 Source: CME Group, 11/6/2012

  24. Current Soybean Futures 14.11 12.81 12.38 Source: CME Group, 11/6/2012

  25. Current Wheat Futures 8.19 8.56 Source: KCBOT, 11/6/2012

  26. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  27. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  28. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  29. Thoughts for 2012 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing

  30. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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