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…with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),

Towards real-time Space Weather forecasts using CMIT: Geomagnetic variations and regional K indexes George Millward. …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP), Mike Wiltberger, Wenbin Wang, Pete Schmitt, Art Richmond, Astrid Maute (HAO) ….and:

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…with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),

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  1. Towards real-time Space Weather forecasts using CMIT: Geomagnetic variations and regional K indexes George Millward …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP), Mike Wiltberger, Wenbin Wang, Pete Schmitt, Art Richmond, Astrid Maute (HAO) ….and: Terry Onsager, Howard Singer, Chris Balch (SWPC)

  2. CISM Knowledge Transfer: Transitioning CMIT for Real-Time Forecasting LFM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation Solar Wind Model TIE-GCM Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1 Current Geospace Conditions Conductivities Winds Sun Earth Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC) Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere model (CMIT 2.0) Output Products, User Benefits Real-time Inputs • CMIT: First principles, physics-based, 3D, time-dependent model. Consists of a coupling between the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry MHD Magnetospheric model(LFM) and the NCAR Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) • Present: Medium resolution mode. Running on “Bluesky”: NCAR IBM Cluster 1600 - 8 proc (OpenMP) • Future: High resolution fast-mode (MPI). Next generation multi-processor computing resources • Initial: 1 hour forecast of geomagnetic activity, global ionospheric electron content, magnetopause location • Users: Power utilities, Satellite operators, communication, precision GPS • Future: 3 day forecast using solar model and observations. • Initial: Real-time solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft. Lead time: about 1 hour • Future: Solar wind model driven by solar observations Lead-time: 3 to 5 days

  3. CMIT 2.5 development on NOAA wJET computer • wJET: LINUX Cluster (1400 cores) • Utilizes Intel compilers • Supports parallel processing via MPI (Not OpenMP) • LFM and LFM-MIX running in parallel on wJET • Tiegcm v 1.9 running on wJET • CMIT 2.5 (LFM MPI - TIEGCM1.9) on wJET 98% built

  4. LFM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation TIE-GCM Current Geospace Conditions Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1 Conductivities Winds Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC)

  5. LFM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation TIE-GCM Current Geospace Conditions Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1 Conductivities Winds Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC) “in house” (NOAA SWPC)

  6. Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1

  7. LFM Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Coupler Electric Potential Particle Precipitation TIE-GCM Conductivities Winds

  8. Current Geospace Conditions Outputs/Products

  9. April 2006 Magnetic Storm 9 14 20th 5 2nd April 2006

  10. April 2006: Magnetometer data

  11. April 2006: CMIT model output

  12. JHorizontal JN JE

  13. Summary / Comments: Exciting initial results: CMIT clearly responding well during storm conditions: Some problems. Future: Running CMIT 2.5 on NOAA wJET (soon !!) Further runs needed for calibration/tuning Inclusion of magnetospheric currents (LFM/RCM)

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