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This study evaluates Algeria's stability for the next 48 months, projecting a moderate likelihood of continued stability. Key factors include the regime's consolidated control over internal affairs, strong foreign support for the status quo, and the ability to manage social unrest and terrorism threats posed by AQIM. The regime’s military and civil security forces are well-prepared to address these challenges. Additionally, the report highlights the importance of effective technocratic policies and political loyalty in maintaining stability amid potential disruptions.
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AlgeriaStabilityStudy - TheFinalEstimate
Will Algeria be stableduringthenext48 months? Requirement:
With moderate confidence it is likely that Algeria will be stable during the next 48 months due to: • The Algerian regime’s consolidated control over internal affairs • Unabatedforeign support of the current status quo • Despitepotentially disruptive social problems and terrorist activity of the Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
The status quo enjoys unabated international support encouraged by economic cooperation and the need to counter transnational threats. FINAL ESTIMATE High concentration of power allows President AbdelazizBouteflika and his loyalists to effectively target potentially disruptive social problems. The regime firmly controls experienced and well-prepared military and civil security forceswhichareable to successfullydealwithpotentialthreatsposed by terrorism and socialunrest.
High concentration of power allows President AbdelazizBouteflika and his loyalists to effectively target potentially disruptive social problems. Careful and Effective Selection of Loyalists + Effective Technocratic Policies
professional political generalists AbdelaazizBelkhadem • appealing activists supported by minority groups KhalidaToumi • technocratic experts with solid academic credentials ChekibKhalil
The regime firmly controls experienced and well-prepared military and civil security forceswhichareable to successfullydealwithpotentialthreatsposed by terrorism and socialunrest. CONTROL EXPERIENCE PREPARATION
PREPARATION The Region of Kabylie Mountains MainCity Military Base Air Defense Military Transportation Unit Military Training Center Helicopter Regiment Alleged Terrorist Camp
EXPERIENCE 17 years of Counter -Insurgency: • Terrorism • SocialUnrest
The status quo enjoys unabated international support encouraged by economic cooperation and the need to counter transnational threats. Attractive Economy: Transnational Threats: • World’s 5th largest gas reserves • DrugsTrafficking • World’s 18 thlargest oil • reserves • HumanTrafficking • Intensiveinfrastructure • development • ArmsTrafficking • Thepopulation of 33 million • people • TERRORISM DEPENDECY
AlgerianStability Framework The status quo enjoys unabated international support encouraged by economic cooperation and the need to counter transnational threats. TransnationalThreats Attractive Economy With moderate confidence it is likely that Algeria will be stable during the next 48 months Effective Technocratic Policies Experience Political Loyalists Preparation Control High concentration of power allows President AbdelazizBouteflika and his loyalists to effectively target potentially disruptive social problems. The regime firmly controls experienced and well-prepared military and civil security forces.
Despite … AQIM remains operationally active and, with low confidence, it is likely to organize precisely-planned terrorist attacks on foreign and domestic, military and state officials.
AnalyticConfidence: • Use of Structured Method(s) In Analysis: 8 • Overall Source Reliability: 7 • Source Corroboration/Agreement: 4 • Level Of Expertise On Subject/Topic & Experience: 2 • Amount of Collaboration: 2 • Task Complexity: 1 • Time Pressure: 2 • OverallAnalyticConfidence: 5,778
ContactInformation: Aleksandra Maria Bielska Ul. Bazylianówka 25 20-144 Lublin POLAND (+4881) 747 90 56 abiels52@mercyhurst.edu
