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ROOFTOP PV Forecasting

ROOFTOP PV Forecasting. August 2012. Presented by Andrew reddaway. Rooftop PV and AEMO. Rooftop PV masks household and business demand. Impacts energy and Maximum Demand (MD) MD. Rooftop PV generation is now included in forecasts for electricity demand.

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ROOFTOP PV Forecasting

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  1. ROOFTOP PV Forecasting August 2012 Presented by Andrew reddaway

  2. Rooftop PV and AEMO • Rooftop PV masks household and business demand. • Impacts energy and Maximum Demand (MD) MD. • Rooftop PV generation is now included in forecasts for electricity demand. • Separate rooftop PV from demand history. • Include as a separate item in forecasts.

  3. Rooftop PV Info Paper 2012 • Published on AEMO’s website: http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/Forecasting/2012-Information-Papers

  4. Process Overview

  5. Historical Capacity There is no perfect data source for installed capacity. Requested from all 13 DBs in the NEM. • Monthly from 2008. • Filled in data holes. ORER • Higher than DB data in early period. • Time lags are inherent.

  6. Historical Capacity - NEM

  7. Interesting solar install no. 1

  8. Sunlight • Actual monthly sunlight intensity data from BOM

  9. Historical Generation - Model • Initial model is simple. • Capital city proxy for region • Annual generation from CEC consumer guide • kWh expected from a 1 kW system, daily avg. over a year

  10. Historical Generation - Model • Monthly % splits from “pvwatts” engine • Draws on its own climate data • Assume north orientation, tilt = latitude

  11. Historical Generation – Model Validation • Sample rooftop system generation data from pvoutput.org

  12. Interesting solar install no. 2

  13. Historical Generation – Model Validation, Melbourne

  14. Installed Capacity forecasts • Forecasts of Rooftop PV growth consider the following drivers: • Electricity price increases • Technology costs for solar • Government subsidies • And barriers • Saturation • Network constraints

  15. Saturation Assumptions for saturation level: • 75% of suitable dwellings have a rooftop PV system • Average system size: 3.5 kW • Allowance for commercial buildings • Study by Entura: City of Port Phillip – 4 kW per dwelling.

  16. Economic Payback For individual household installations:

  17. NEM installed capacity forecast

  18. Non-AEMO Capacity Forecasts

  19. Interesting Solar Installation 3

  20. NEM Energy – Rooftop PV

  21. VIC Energy – Rooftop PV

  22. Vic Energy – Scenario 3 Planning Rooftop PV 5.01% Rooftop PV 2.58%

  23. VIC MD day generation curve

  24. VIC MD Forecast – Rooftop PV 6.79% of total MD 3.14% of total MD

  25. Recap: Key points • Rooftop PV offsets energy and MD. • Fast-changing area. Impacted by government policy. • Already significant uptake (1.5 GW in the NEM), and growing (say 12 GW in 2031). • Lots of headroom before hitting saturation level. • Network constraints are an issue. • Potential to align PV generation better with system MD. • Room to improve our analysis and understanding, especially for MD. • PV now included as a component in AEMO forecasts.

  26. Divider slide

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